Photo by Sebastian Klein on UnsplashWheatGeneral Comments: Wheat markets closed higher last week and trends are turning up in Chicago SRW but remain sideways in HRW and HRS. It appeared to be a speculative short covering rally. Two weeks ago, USDA cut back on world ending stocks due to weather problems in major Wheat growing areas of the world. The war in Ukraine continues with Russia still bombing Ukrainian ports near the Black Sea and Danube River, but there was no real news from the front over the last few days. Ukraine is now trying to load ships and exporting through the Black Sea and some ships have in fact been loaded at those ports. Russia is still exporting and offering Wheat into the world market. Ukraine and the EU countries are offering as well and are getting new business. Demand has been poor for US Wheat as Russia production looks strong, but exports are expected to increase for the rest of the marketing year. Ukraine has lately shipped at least three loads of grain through the Black Sea after bombing a lot of Russian ships to allow for safe passage. Weather forecasts call for drier weather for Australia and Argentina, with production losses now expected for both countries.Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get isolated showers. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see isolated showers. Temperatures will average above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average above normal.Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to up with objectives of 632 and 680 December. Support is at 583, 569, and 561 December, with resistance at 606, 640, and 650 December. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 661, 652, and 645 December, with resistance at 688, 693, and 703 December. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 720, 711, and 708 December, and resistance is at 752, 777, and 791 December.COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of October 17, 2023
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-SRW – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #001602 Open Interest is 515,825
: Positions :
: 55,173 147,029 178,769 108,021 81,004 130,809 72,171 472,772 478,973: 43,053 36,852
: Changes from: October 10, 2023 (Change in open interest: 6,794) :
: 1,537 -1,355 2,470 4,495 3,182 -1,554 2,341 6,948 6,637: -154 156
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 10.7 28.5 34.7 20.9 15.7 25.4 14.0 91.7 92.9: 8.3 7.1
: Total Traders: 405 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 121 107 136 104 89 46 33 338 305:
——————————————————————————————————————-COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of October 17, 2023
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-HRW – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #001612 Open Interest is 242,114
: Positions :
: 30,710 68,678 64,347 51,718 62,908 74,526 24,353 221,302 220,286: 20,812 21,827
: Changes from: October 10, 2023 (Change in open interest: 6,513) :
: -838 281 2,884 -1,120 -1,247 4,428 4,256 5,354 6,174: 1,159 339
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 12.7 28.4 26.6 21.4 26.0 30.8 10.1 91.4 91.0: 8.6 9.0
: Total Traders: 223 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 43 51 63 62 71 36 18 174 176:
——————————————————————————————————————-Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of October 17, 2023
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
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WHEAT-HRSpring – MINNEAPOLIS GRAIN EXCHANGE (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS) :
CFTC Code #001626 Open Interest is 76,427 :
: Positions :
: 47,099 25,045 2,377 724 180 4,555 30,284 5,484 2,326 991 3,796 :
: Changes from: October 10, 2023 :
: 3,677 2,271 73 -238 3 27 2,249 175 100 -365 800 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 61.6 32.8 3.1 0.9 0.2 6.0 39.6 7.2 3.0 1.3 5.0 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 117 :
: 56 45 4 . 5 7 22 11 9 5 10 :
—————————————————————————————————————- RiceGeneral Comments: Rice closed a little lower last week on ideas of quiet demand as the weekly export sales report was not strong. The market shows a short term trading range on the charts. The harvest is almost over and less Rice is on offer from producers. The USDA reports showed little to get excited about either up or down in price. Yields are called average to below average in Texas and average so far in Arkansas as the harvest moves forward. The quality has been uneven with some crops affected by the extreme heat seen during the growing season. India will not allow Rice exports except for Basmati for now because of bad weather in some production areas. They have imposed export taxes o 20% on sales to keep the Rice in the country.Overnight News: The Delta should get isolated showers, mostly near the Gulf coast. Temperatures should be above normal.Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1568, 1560, and 1555 November and resistance is at 1609, 1629, and 1637 November.Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of October 17, 2023
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
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ROUGH RICE – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 200,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #039601 Open Interest is 11,710 :
: Positions :
: 5,627 9,644 87 0 0 1,853 439 4 1,357 302 587 :
: Changes from: October 10, 2023 :
: 238 81 -14 0 0 -121 22 4 -21 19 16 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 48.1 82.4 0.7 0.0 0.0 15.8 3.7 0.0 11.6 2.6 5.0 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 58 :
: 22 18 . 0 0 9 . . 9 5 7 :
—————————————————————————————————————- Corn And OatsGeneral Comments: Corn closed higher last week on what appeared to be speculative short covering. Trends are up in the market now. Oats closed higher on late week buying. The US Corn harvest is continuing with good weather and yield reports showing good and bad results with no real trend evident. Farmers report no real sales of Corn as they wait for higher prices. Weather forecasts remain mostly dry but with moderate temperatures for the Midwest for early this week, then a chance of showers. Demand for US Corn in the world market has been very low and domestic demand has been weak due to reduced Cattle and other livestock production. Demand is increasing now. The Brazil Corn harvest is over and so export prices for Corn from Brazil are relatively cheap and Brazil is getting the business. That could change in the coming year is the growing conditions deteriorate in Brazil as is possible in an El Nino year. It is already hot and dry in central and northern Brazil and in Argentina. Southern Brazil is too wet.Overnight News:Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are up with objectives of 505, 522, and 524 December. Support is at 499, 493, and 487 December, and resistance is at 507, 527, and 533 December. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 369, 367, and 360 December, and resistance is at 395, 401, and 410 December.COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of October 17, 2023
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
CORN – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #002602 Open Interest is 1,737,540
: Positions :
: 144,950 313,514 493,039 560,740 608,435 351,284 106,660 1,550,012 1,521,649: 187,527 215,891
: Changes from: October 10, 2023 (Change in open interest: 3,082) :
: -3,350 -1,627 7,182 -13 -5,819 -340 2,999 3,479 2,735: -398 347
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 8.3 18.0 28.4 32.3 35.0 20.2 6.1 89.2 87.6: 10.8 12.4
: Total Traders: 764 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 106 176 200 358 342 51 32 652 630:
——————————————————————————————————————-Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of October 17, 2023
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
OATS – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS) :
CFTC Code #004603 Open Interest is 4,219 :
: Positions :
: 1,396 2,478 119 0 14 500 169 0 223 184 183 :
: Changes from: October 10, 2023 :
: 98 -315 55 0 14 -108 169 0 44 68 -1 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 33.1 58.7 2.8 0.0 0.3 11.9 4.0 0.0 5.3 4.4 4.3 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 23 :
: 10 7 . 0 . . . 0 . 4 . :
—————————————————————————————————————- SoybeansGeneral Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Meal were higher last week, but Soybean Oil was lower. New buying was noted as Brazil remains hot and dry in northern areas and too wet in southern areas. Argentina is also dry. Initial yield results for the US new crop show that production and yields are above and below APH data with no real trend showing just yet. The data has been called disappointing to traders as production appears to be less than expected so far this crop year. Midwest weather forecasts call for dry conditions and above normal temperatures for the Midwest for the first part of the week, then showers and cooler temperatures are expected. Ideas are that the top end of the yield potential is gone and severe damage is becoming possible in some areas. Brazil basis levels are still low, and the US is being shut out of the market for most importers, but the US is price competitive now. Brazil is still selling a lot of Soybeans to China and other countries and reports indicate that the availability of Brazil Soybeans might be ramping down. The US sales to China have ramped up in the last month.Overnight News:Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are up with objectives of 1346 November. Support is at 1289, 1274, and 1251 November, and resistance is at 1332, 1346, and 1360 November. Trends in Soybean Meal are up with no objectives. Support is at 415.00, 408.00, and 402.00 December, and resistance is at 426.00, 432.00, and 428.00 December. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 5300, 5210, and 5140 December, with resistance at 5510, 5610, and 5640 December.COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of October 17, 2023
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEANS – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #005602 Open Interest is 1,037,359
: Positions :
: 63,764 83,789 327,161 396,562 487,949 183,078 57,422 970,565 956,320: 66,794 81,039
: Changes from: October 10, 2023 (Change in open interest: 16,064) :
: 2,689 2,342 -12,567 25,687 25,223 -2,518 -361 13,291 14,638: 2,774 1,427
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 6.1 8.1 31.5 38.2 47.0 17.6 5.5 93.6 92.2: 6.4 7.8
: Total Traders: 597 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 105 149 198 230 246 46 28 507 515:
——————————————————————————————————————-COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of October 17, 2023
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEAN OIL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #007601 Open Interest is 487,860
: Positions :
: 48,239 50,769 133,330 137,624 249,814 137,601 27,807 456,794 461,721: 31,065 26,139
: Changes from: October 10, 2023 (Change in open interest: 14,807) :
: -1,838 -693 11,437 3,703 3,024 3,614 531 16,917 14,300: -2,110 508
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 9.9 10.4 27.3 28.2 51.2 28.2 5.7 93.6 94.6: 6.4 5.4
: Total Traders: 299 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 65 65 96 84 87 41 22 245 230:
——————————————————————————————————————-COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of October 17, 2023
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEAN MEAL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #026603 Open Interest is 540,196
: Positions :
: 63,157 32,237 156,166 142,196 307,305 127,875 15,763 489,395 511,471: 50,802 28,726
: Changes from: October 10, 2023 (Change in open interest: 28,411) :
: 10,353 -7,865 17,192 1,662 21,783 -1,516 -988 27,691 30,122: 721 -1,711
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 11.7 6.0 28.9 26.3 56.9 23.7 2.9 90.6 94.7: 9.4 5.3
: Total Traders: 300 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 85 37 96 105 101 37 18 266 226:
——————————————————————————————————————- Canola And Palm OilGeneral Comments: Palm Oil was lower today on weakness in Chicago and despite stronger demand indications from India and China and the AmSpec data from Friday. AmSpec showed that exports were almost 886,000 tons so far this month, up 7.8% from last month. Crude oil prices were higher. Some say the market still needs to see less production coming. Traders still think that El Nino will cause big production problems down the road and are holding out hopes for rallies in the future, but supplies appear to be very strong for now. Canola closed lower yesterday and trends are turning down in this market. Futures appear to have failed at strong resistance levels on the daily charts yesterday. Drier weather is generally forecast for the Prairies and the crops have been stressed, but some rain is falling now to maintain crop condition. Harvest has been active and speculators were selling.Overnight News:Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are down with objectives of 671.00 November. Support is at 684.00, 679.00, and 680.00 November, with resistance at 701.00, 710.00, and 719.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 3700, 3640, and 3570 January, with resistance at 3820, 3880, and 3900 January.Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of October 17, 2023
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
USD Malaysian Crude Palm Oil C – CHICAGO MERCANTILE EXCHANGE (CONTRACTS OF 25 METRIC TONS) :
CFTC Code #037021 Open Interest is 45,815 :
: Positions :
: 35,591 20,855 700 4,570 520 0 1,320 80 2,364 11,910 6,560 :
: Changes from: October 10, 2023 :
: 140 -360 0 300 240 0 0 0 460 660 480 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 77.7 45.5 1.5 10.0 1.1 0.0 2.9 0.2 5.2 26.0 14.3 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 34 :
: 10 10 . . . 0 . . 4 9 5 :
—————————————————————————————————————-Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of October 17, 2023
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
CANOLA – ICE FUTURES U.S. (20 Metric Tonnes) :
CFTC Code #135731 Open Interest is 315,646 :
: Positions :
: 252,011 180,305 7,213 2,398 2,822 8,270 80,003 20,602 6,526 11,220 16,245 :
: Changes from: October 10, 2023 :
: -817 -9,705 -965 203 118 811 9,937 -2,504 -518 -1,538 727 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 79.8 57.1 2.3 0.8 0.9 2.6 25.3 6.5 2.1 3.6 5.1 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 323 :
: 61 68 4 5 5 19 75 23 62 65 52 :
—————————————————————————————————————-Midwest Weather Forecast Mostly dry, but a few showers near the Great Lakes. Temperatures should average below normal.US Gulf Cash BasisCorn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
October 87 Dec 140 Dec
115 Dec
87 NovNovember
87 Dec 140 Dec
115 Dec 87 NovDecember
82 Dec
140 Dec 115 Dec 73 JanDJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Oct 23
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Monday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 812.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Dec 817.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 825.00 -07.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 830.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 820.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Dec 825.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 832.50 -07.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 837.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 770.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 755.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 3,720.00 -20.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 228.00 -01.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.7895)DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Oct 23
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 166,715 lots, or 8.17 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-23 4,959 5,002 4,935 4,948 4,979 4,960 -19 24,808 23,142
Jan-24 4,908 4,931 4,873 4,886 4,920 4,899 -21 113,477 156,806
Mar-24 4,860 4,892 4,840 4,854 4,884 4,866 -18 26,289 20,921
May-24 4,911 4,927 4,881 4,893 4,921 4,902 -19 1,520 9,183
Jul-24 4,882 4,896 4,852 4,863 4,888 4,868 -20 357 3,866
Sep-24 4,851 4,874 4,828 4,843 4,868 4,847 -21 264 1,757
Corn
Turnover: 567,837 lots, or 14.29 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-23 2,515 2,531 2,514 2,528 2,518 2,521 3 37,962 71,677
Jan-24 2,506 2,519 2,502 2,511 2,508 2,510 2 369,353 824,612
Mar-24 2,508 2,518 2,505 2,514 2,511 2,511 0 93,218 235,614
May-24 2,549 2,555 2,545 2,551 2,549 2,549 0 27,145 215,239
Jul-24 2,551 2,565 2,551 2,562 2,559 2,560 1 38,612 117,160
Sep-24 2,569 2,575 2,566 2,571 2,568 2,570 2 1,547 9,925
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,616,226 lots, or 61.75 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-23 4,124 4,169 4,091 4,094 4,149 4,117 -32 58,538 97,520
Dec-23 3,992 4,022 3,937 3,952 4,004 3,969 -35 22,150 58,416
Jan-24 3,909 3,952 3,874 3,886 3,919 3,903 -16 1,225,522 1,381,725
Mar-24 3,675 3,722 3,649 3,663 3,682 3,675 -7 23,941 64,463
May-24 3,410 3,434 3,383 3,387 3,415 3,402 -13 197,549 719,918
Jul-24 3,390 3,421 3,372 3,376 3,398 3,392 -6 51,948 474,004
Aug-24 3,465 3,489 3,445 3,449 3,467 3,466 -1 10,836 66,886
Sep-24 3,447 3,465 3,421 3,423 3,445 3,437 -8 25,742 146,203
Palm Oil
Turnover: 666,284 lots, or 47.98 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-23 7,206 7,206 7,084 7,114 7,206 7,150 -56 3,476 9,382
Dec-23 7,252 7,252 7,118 7,146 7,230 7,176 -54 14,007 31,209
Jan-24 7,246 7,266 7,140 7,170 7,252 7,198 -54 589,583 437,465
Feb-24 7,292 7,292 7,158 7,180 7,262 7,206 -56 9,928 24,333
Mar-24 7,282 7,306 7,188 7,206 7,294 7,238 -56 5,701 18,270
Apr-24 7,286 7,314 7,196 7,212 7,310 7,244 -66 3,803 8,753
May-24 7,278 7,304 7,184 7,206 7,302 7,234 -68 38,550 94,682
Jun-24 7,238 7,266 7,162 7,174 7,260 7,210 -50 127 793
Jul-24 7,200 7,230 7,122 7,124 7,212 7,168 -44 139 983
Aug-24 7,148 7,170 7,082 7,100 7,166 7,116 -50 70 1,689
Sep-24 7,102 7,116 7,020 7,048 7,112 7,066 -46 888 2,080
Oct-24 7,112 7,112 7,022 7,026 7,112 7,060 -52 12 5
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 751,526 lots, or 59.34 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-23 8,142 8,198 8,066 8,084 8,142 8,114 -28 9,547 22,588
Dec-23 8,076 8,082 7,958 7,968 8,076 8,004 -72 8,281 37,552
Jan-24 7,972 8,006 7,874 7,892 7,998 7,932 -66 654,563 524,351
Mar-24 7,810 7,840 7,724 7,742 7,842 7,762 -80 2,977 30,060
May-24 7,612 7,632 7,514 7,538 7,646 7,558 -88 65,035 154,722
Jul-24 7,552 7,570 7,452 7,480 7,578 7,504 -74 6,614 119,345
Aug-24 7,520 7,524 7,424 7,450 7,520 7,464 -56 3,088 26,843
Sep-24 7,420 7,444 7,346 7,374 7,440 7,390 -50 1,421 6,245
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.More By This Author:Softs Report – Monday, October 23Softs Report – Friday, October 20Grains Report – Wednesday, October 18