Photo by Tina Guina on UnsplashCottonGeneral Comments: Cotton closed higher yesterday on stronger than expected weekly export sales. Sales for the current crop ear were about 185,000 bales and were much improved over the last few weeks. Macro economic data for the US was very strong as well. Ideas are that the US could be headed into a recession and cause demand to be soft. Prices are supported by ideas of tight supplies here in the US and around the world. There are still many concerns about demand from China and the rest of Asia due to the slow economic return of China in the world market. There are production concerns about Australian and Indian Cotton as both countries are likely to suffer the effects of El Nino starting this Fall.Overnight News: The Delta will get isolated showers and above normal temperatures. The Southeast will see isolated showers and near to above normal temperatures. Texas will have scattered showers and near to above normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 79.66 ct/lb. ICE daily certified stocks are now 74,143 bales, from 70,706 bales yesterday.Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed to down with objectives of 82.10 and 81.70 December. Support is at 81.50, 80.80, and 79.00 December, with resistance of 86.50, 86.80 and 88.00 December.DJ On-Call Cotton – Oct 26
As of Oct 20. On-call positions represent spot cotton sold to or
purchased from a merchant, based on New York cotton futures contracts
of 500-pound bales. Prices are not yet fixed against these contracts.
Source: CFTC
*-denotes changes from the previous week are based on revised data from
last week.
Call Previous Change Call Previous Change
Sales Purchases
Oct 23 0 0 0 0 0 0
Dec 23 30,384 36,725 -6,341 24,981 26,282 -1,301
Mar 24 23,129 22,114 1,015 5,636 4,598 1,038
May 24 8,851 8,695 156 1,094 664 430
Jul 24 11,963 11,465 498 412 362 50
Oct 24 0 0 0 0 0 0
Dec 24 5,721 5,483 238 29,467 28,847 620
Mar 25 184 158 26 0 0 0
May 25 273 44 229 0 0 0
Jul 25 114 114 0 0 0 0
Dec 25 375 375 0 1,621 981 640
Total 80,994 85,173 -4,179 63,211 61,734 1,477
Open Open Change
Int Int
Oct 23 0 0 0
Dec 23 109,296 120,006 -10,710
Mar 24 65,555 65,542 13
May 24 36,723 33,759 2,964
Jul 24 14,954 14,310 644
Oct 24 7 8 -1
Dec 24 17,736 18,313 -577
Mar 25 353 330 23
May 25 16 16 0
Jul 25 3 3 0
Dec 25 34 4 30
Total 244,677 252,291 -7,614 FCOJGeneral Comments: FCOJ closed higher again yesterday on follow through buying, and the trends on the daily charts are up. Reports of short supplies in Florida and Brazil are around. Futures are also being supported in forecasts for an above average hurricane season that could bring a storm to damage the trees once again. Historically low estimates of production due in part to the hurricanes and in part to the greening disease that have hurt production, but conditions are significantly better now with scattered showers and moderate temperatures. Nelsen said that retail prices are as high as they have ever been at $9.18/gallon. Demand is the lowest since 2001 at 24.08 million gallons for the four weeks ending on October 7. The Florida Movement and Pack report showed that inventories are 44% less than last year.Overnight News: Florida should get isolated showers. Temperatures will average near normal. Brazil should get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures.Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed to up with objectives of 410.00November. Support is at 395.00, 387.00, and 380.00 November, with resistance at 407.00, 410.00, and 413.00 November. CoffeeGeneral Comments: New York and London closed mostly lower yesterday with only London November higher on the day. Trends are sideways in both markets. Light rains are now being reported in central and southern growing areas of Brazil and conditions are called good. Demand for Robusta and lower quality Arabicas remains strong. The lack of offers from Asia, mostly from Vietnam but also Indonesia remains a main feature of the market, but the offers are starting to improve with the Vietnam harvest progressing and the US Dollar moving higher. Offers from Brazil and other countries in Latin America should be increasing but prices are considered a little cheap to create much selling interest from producers and the differentials offered have been very high. These are moderating as the new harvest comes to the market.Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are lower today at 0.406 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 155.16 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions with near to above normal temperatures. Central America will get mostly dry conditions. Vietnam will see scattered showers.Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 160.00, 155.00, and 153.00 December, and resistance is at 165.00, 170.00 and 173.00 December. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 2500, 2460, and 2400 November, with resistance at 2610, 2670, and 2700 November. SugarGeneral Comments: New York and London closed lower yesterday. Little has changed with the fundamentals and the market is still short of Sugar. There are still forecasts for and reports of rain in Brazil after a spell of very hot and dry conditions and this has delayed loading of ships. The market continues to see stressful conditions in Asian production areas. The Brail rains is underway now, but showers have been light and scattered. The Asian dryness is still the main feature. Many growing areas in India have been dry, and exports have indicated that production has suffered. The government there now says it will have more than enough production for the domestic demand but will limit exports to help control inflation. There are also worries about the Thai and Indian production potential due to El Nino. Offers from Brazil are still active but other origins are still not offering, and demand is still strong. Brazil ports are very congested so shipment of Sugar has been slower. Mexico is hot and dry and there are increasing concerns about production there.Overnight News: Brazil will get mostly dry conditions in the south and scattered showers in the north. Temperatures should average near to below normal. India will get mostly dry conditions and below normal temperatures.Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2650, 2640, and 2620 March and resistance is at 2790, 2810, and 2840 March. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 725.00, 719.00, and 709.00 December, with resistance at 749.00, 753.00, and 756.00 December. CocoaGeneral Comments: New York and London closed higher yesterday, and the trends are still up in both markets. The EU grind data was stronger than expected and was down 0.9% from last year. The North American grind data was weaker by 17.9%. Cocoa arrivals at Ivory Coast ports dropped 16.2% for the marketing year when compared to last year. The main crop harvest comes into focus and as farmers in West Africa report that many areas have too much rain that has caused harvest delays and could lead to disease. Ideas of tight supplies remain based on more reports of reduced arrivals in Ivory Coast and Ghana continue, Midcrop production ideas are lower now with diseases reported in the trees due to too much rain that could also affect the main crop production.Overnight News: Isolated showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average near normal. Brazil will get isolated showers and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 4.688 million bags.Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 3860, 3880, and 3940 December. Support is at 3780, 3700, and 3600 December, with resistance at 3860, 3920, and 3980 December. Trends in London are up with no objectives. Support is at 3260, 3200, and 3170 December, with resistance at 3350, 3380, and 3910 December.More By This Author:Grains Report – Wednesday, October 25Grains Report – Tuesday, October 24Softs Report – Tuesday, October 24