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Lots of agreement around 2% SAAR, with the NY Fed at 2.45%. Here’s a graphic depiction of the implications for the level of GDP.
Figure 1: Reported GDP from advance Q4 release (bold black), GDPNow (blue square), NY Fed nowcast (red *), St. Louis Fed news index (light green open triangle), Goldman Sachs tracking (pink open circle), November Survey of Professional Forecasters median (light blue line). Source: BEA, Atlanta Fed, NY Fed, St. Louis Fed, Goldman Sachs, Philadelphia Fed; nowcasts are of November 17th.WEI for data through 11/11 is 2.35%, while the Baumeister Leiva-Leon Sims Weekly Economic Conditions Indicator is -0.4% (so 1.96% if trend is 2%).More By This Author:GDP And Interest Rate Forecasts And Recession From The SPFCPI Inflation In OctoberTaiwan Straits Balance of Forces, 2023
