Market Briefing For Tuesday, Nov. 28


Zombie market – following the holiday weekend. Fortunately no huge crisis on the surface…Freepik…while retaliation for the latest attack on a US Navy Destroyer looms as a prospect (in fact failure to respond invites a different interpretation by the terrorists…in Yemen, Iran or wherever… so far messages not received).  I’ll expand on markets more tomorrow, this remains an overbought market in technical terms for the S&P, an oversold flattish market for small-cap as well as similarly pummeled stocks. I’ve got my eye on a couple defense-related speculative stocks, although it could be said we’re represented and certainly a majority of such small stocks have done nothing but frustrate.So I hesitate adding another, however there’s one that could benefit from a couple programs that are being initiated (Sec’y. Pete referred to ‘rail safety’ on CNBC today and that relates to ‘drone-based’ monitoring). However the stock I was watching did rise on that, so I’ll keep an eye on it and ‘maybe’ take a bit of a pullback shot…I absolutely resist…usually wise but not always…chasing anything on news. There are many, again many, stocks that can rally in 2024, so I’m generally resisting getting involved in more pending tax-selling season.Market X-Ray: Nothing particularly earth-shattering going on (as long as you are not under one of the various attack drones or rockets striking in more than one place now). A few fired into Israel, several against our Navy ships, more into Ukraine and a key strike ‘on’ both a Russian engine factory and a facility to assemble cruise missiles…that one blew-up the weapons factory…given the number of secondary explosions…those were the force-multiplier. Much talk about Ukraine being overwhelmed, but it appears they’re really returning fire.I would not be surprised however, ‘if’ the current (lucky hit?) surge against the Russians actually opens-up a discussion of ‘negotiations’ before politicians in Washington attempt to cut-off or limit the supplies Kiev needs for this winter.Dallas Fed was soft, but also expected with the idea of a softish economic hit being a plus in terms of ‘expediting’ any recessionary tendencies and keeping the Fed at-bay. Essentially the S&P though, is entitled to pause almost in very requisite fashion, during parts of December’s first half, as that’s the process.Energy is missing in this market, and that’s fine. It should become exhausted as far as the ‘A-wave’ of our projected rebound from the late October washout ..so we’ll expect selling squalls not to be excessive providing the world doesn’t implode geopolitically (volcano-wise part of it is) over the weeks just ahead. Bottom-line: Continues an upward trend structure from our noted October low while I would normally expect this phase to run out-of-steam as part of overall evolution, that’s the process. Then, barring catastrophes later, up some more.All of this could result in ‘not much’ happening for a few weeks, but that’s fine, and ‘if’ we can get enough of a shakeout in December’s first half, even some of the big stocks will have some rebound room into January. But not yet, and it is no more confusing than what we’ve discussed, given the Fed likely ‘done’ and tax-selling restraining somewhat entitled rebounds in smaller stocks.Of course, I’m monitoring the global picture, which includes Ukraine (sadly too many have bought-into Russian propaganda influencing some politicians that don’t recognize the importance the outcome there holds for the entire Western World). And yes, both Ukraine and Israel need to prevail for reasons not quite as distant as many think. Israel was well along toward reconciliation and deals with Arab countries, and actually that’s probably what contributed to the timing of the Hamas massacre attack with Iran really not giving a damn about ‘poor Palestinians’, but rather very worried about Israel and the Saudi’s working in a unified security arrangement. Notably that deal is ‘not’ off the table for now.More By This Author:Market Briefing For Monday, Nov. 27 Market Briefing For Tuesday, Nov. 21stMarket Briefing For Monday, Nov. 20th

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