A reader asked a similar question the other day. First we need to calculate what it will take. Then we need to define “fair share”.
Image clip from WSJ video, arrow and question added by MishIn a perpetually moving target, the UN says the world needs to commit $131 trillion by 2050 to address climate change. Let’s crunch the annual numbers, by country, and by person.On March 20, 2023, I noted Don’t Worry, It Will Only Cost $131 Trillion to Address Climate Change
The UN is out with another fearmongering report on climate change. It’s labeled the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (AR6).
A few years ago, the estimate was $98 trillion. Now it’s $131 Trillion. In a few years it will be $200 trillion.
Of course, all government estimates overstate the benefits and understate the costs, typically by a factor of 5 to 10.
However, given that I am perpetually optimistic, let’s ignore history and assume that a mere $131 trillion will suffice. Since bragging by France triggered this post, let’s start with France.
France Exceeds Target!
Please consider this wonderful announcement: France greatly exceeds its commitments for climate financing in developing countries in 2022 (20 september 2023)
At the UN Secretary-General’s Climate Ambition Summit in New York in September 2023, Ministers Bruno Le Maire, Catherine Colonna and Agnès Pannier-Runacher, and Minister of State Chrysoula Zacharopoulou, announced that France provided €7.6 billion in climate financing in 2022, including €2.6 billion for adaptation. This exceeds the target set by President Macron at the end of 2020 by around 25%.
Bruno Le Maire, Minister of the Economy, Finance and Industrial and Digital Sovereignty, said: “These excellent figures demonstrate France’s commitment and steadfast approach as regards helping to combat climate change.
Lovely. Cheers to France for exceeding its commitment of €6.0 billion by an amazing €1.6 billion!Wait a second, does “financing” mean spent or lent? Let’s optimistically assume France is handing out free money to the undeveloped world support the cause.Here’s the key question: What does France need to do across the board for the next 26 years? At 2.1% of global GDP, the French share of addressing the problem is $2,751,000,000,000.Mercy sakes, that’s $2.751 trillion! But that is through 2050. So France only needs to come up with about 1/26 of that per year. This is a very doable $106 billion per year.
What is the US Share?
Once again, taking into account my perpetual optimism, we can run the math for the US.The US share of global GDP is 15.54 percent. The US needs to pony up $20.357 trillion. Don’t worry, we can spread that out over 26 years. That’s a mere $783 billion per year for 26 years.Again, this is clearly very doable. This is fortunate because the world will end if we don’t.
US Share by Percentage of Emissions
On a percentage basis, the US only needs to pony up 13.61 percent vs 30.69 percent for China and 8.29 percent for the EU.But much of what China produces ends up in the US. So we need to account for that. And we need to support developing nations so that they only use renewables and do not advance economically like we did.Thus, the US “fair” share is really closer to 25 percent or whatever the UN says it is. Then we need to take that a bit further by calculating a fair share on a person by person basis.
What’s Your “Fair Share”?
The Civilian Noninstitutional Population (CNP) of the US is 267,822,000. The CNP definition is persons 16 years of age and older residing in the 50 states and the District of Columbia, who are not inmates of institutions (e.g., penal and mental facilities, homes for the aged), and who are not on active duty in the Armed Forces.We can calculate a rough estimate of personal fair share based on that number.25 percent of $131 trillion is $32.75 trillion. Divided by 267,822,000 yields a starting point fair share estimate of $122,283 for anyone 16 and older. At 15.54 percent, the starting point is about $76,009.But what about those between age 0 and 16? And what about those over the age of 16 still in school.If you are the proud parent of anyone in that group, you need to pay for them too. And if you travel more than average, have a bigger house etc., your fare share needs to adjust accordingly.I suspect most readers of this blog consume far more than their far share of global goods and services so they need to pony up somewhere between $200,000 and $1,000,000 as their fair share.
Wait, There is Still More
My lead question was “Are you Willing to Pay and Do Your “Fair Share” to Address Climate Change?”We have only discussed the “pay” portion, not the “do” portion.To meet the climate goals, everyone needs to eliminate meat from their diet, abandon their car and use public transportation powered by electricity, eat insects for protein, stop travel by air, give up gas stoves, set the air conditioner level no lower than 80 degrees, and set heat in winter no higher than 65 degrees.If you have a 4 bedroom home with only two kids, that is definitely unfair. You need to offer a free room to someone who is homeless.In the name of fairness, everyone needs to dramatically reduce their standard of living.
John Kerry Says We Need “Money, Money, Money, Money”
The US is fully committed because John Kerry Says We Need “Money, Money, Money, Money” to Combat 1.5 Degrees of Climate Change
“So how do we get there? The lesson I’ve learned in last years, and I’ve learned it as secretary and leaned it since reinforced in spades, is money. money, money, money, money, money, money.”
Some may be shaking in their boots fearing China, Germany, India, and every country but France will fail to meet its fair share.Not me. I am quite sure the French will make up for any global shortages. Meanwhile, China is still building coal-fired plants to create electricity. Mercy!I am sure France will cover that too.But will the US cover its fair share? That’s a quite doable $783 billion per year for 26 years based on GDP percentage and about $1.26 trillion per year on a fair share of current consumption basis.So that we do not have to depend on the generosity of the French, let me ask again: Are you Willing to Pay and Do Your “Fair Share” to Address Climate Change?If you won’t, who will? France?More By This Author:In How Many Ways are President Biden and Trump Alike?We Don’t Need To Fix FDIC, We Need A Genuinely Safe BankIndustrial Production Up Slightly, Mostly On A Huge Auto Surge As UAW Strike Ends
