More and more equity indices are hitting fresh record highs with the S&P 500 within 1.5% of doing the same. Understandably on these moves, investor sentiment has gotten a further boost. Per the latest AAII Investor Sentiment Survey, 51.3% of investors reported as bullish this week. And keep in mind, due to the timing of the survey, that would not have fully captured any investor response to yesterday’s FOMC. That is the highest and first reading above 50% since July 20th of this year when bulls were only 0.1 percentage points higher. Outside of that week, it would be the highest bullish sentiment reading since April 2022.
Given the new high in bulls, bears have been nowhere to be found. A meager 19.3% of respondents reported as bearish this week. That surpasses the recent low of 19.6% from just two weeks ago for the lowest amount since the first week of January 2018 when only 15.56% of responses were bearish.
The overwhelmingly bullish sentiment can also be observed through the bull-bear spread. Currently, the share of bulls outnumber bears by 32 percentage points. That is the widest margin in favor of bulls since April 2021. Looked at another way, that is 2.1 standard deviations above the historical average of the spread meaning sentiment is extremely extended..
The cheery sentiment on the part of investors certainly means there is a warm and fuzzy feeling during this holiday season, but we would note that sentiment is historically a contrarian indicator. In other words, opposite to what investors are feeling, extremely bullish sentiment readings have historically been followed by more lackluster returns.More By This Author:Inflation Still Moving In The Right Direction
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