Economic data this morning broadly came in healthier than expected, including weekly jobless claims. Initial claims were expected to go unchanged at 220K. While that previous week’s reading was revised up to 221K, this week’s print fell all the way down to 202K. That is the lowest reading on jobless claims since the week of October 14th and September 16th before that. In all, that makes for one of the lowest readings on claims since January of last year.
Before seasonal adjustment, claims are largely following the usual seasonal pattern having been trending higher since the early fall. Currently, at 248.3K, unadjusted claims are running at the lowest level for the comparable week of the year since 1969.
Continuing claims have gotten much more elevated than initial claims over the past few months. Currently totaling 1.876 million, continuing claims have risen meaningfully from the low of 1.658 million put in place just three months ago. However, the consistent pace of increases over that span (every week from September 16th through the first week of November saw a week-over-week increase) has slowed, having been more choppy in the past month. In fact, at 1.876 million, the current reading is still almost 50K below the recent high of 1.925 million set in mid-November.
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