The number of Americans filing for jobless benefits for the first time rose from 206k to 218k in the week ending 12/23 (just off 2023 lows)…
Source: BloombergContinuing claims rose modestly from 1.861 million Americans to 1.875 million (still below the 1.9mm Maginot Line, but basically at the highest in two years)…
Source: BloombergAdditionally, Goldman believes that persistent seasonal distortions more than explain the 218k increase in continuing claims since early September, and expect those distortions to boost the level of continuing claims by an additional 100k by March.
However, if the massive loosening of financial conditions is any signal, continuing claims are about to plunge (4 week lagged continuing claims track US FCI)…
Source: BloombergNow, what will that do to wage inflation?More By This Author:WTI Extends ‘Death Cross’ Losses After API Reports Another Unexpected Crude BuildThe Worst ‘Candyflation’ Is Yet To Come As Cocoa Prices Near RecordThe Cost Of Grain That Feeds The World Hits New 15-Year High
