Comfortable markets can lull one into a sense of complacency; and today’s friendly PCE number helps a balanced view about the market and economics going into 2024. The complacency may not be a problem, if ‘war’ is avoided in regards to a possible naval ‘Battle Surface’ engagement in the Red Sea.Overall we have been positive from our indicated decline-conclusion into the washout of late October, and we’ve not had a ‘B wave’ (yet) in an A-B-C rally; so that’s out there, but again (barring expanded war) not just at this moment.
I realize some are saying ‘if we don’t get a Fed rate cut markets are in trouble’ and actually I don’t concur. Real rates are already lower as often noted; while ‘official’ Funds Rates should catch-down with where Treasuries are, later on.S&P earnings are not the sole measure for evaluating 2024; because many of the mega-cap leaders could actually ‘flounder’ a bit (with tax gains even early in 2024); but notice I didn’t say soar or enter submarine dive. Too many pundit calls for collapses and such; but as I’ve noted for months; you can’t crash the ‘already crashed’; so conditions can be more ‘placid’ on the surface, while the interesting part of the voyage would be gradual gains in the suppressed small stocks that not merely lag the big-caps; but actually have fairly good outlooks.
Bottom line: minor chop but books are closing on 2023; so we ought to see a bit more upside in stocks eager to participate in early 2024; barring new shock or unexpected escalation of war (sinking an Iranian ship would be escalation); as would be Hezbollah entering the war against Israel more overtly sooner.. it is already expanding unfortunately in the very North and Southern Lebanon.Broadening out: the name of the game; after S&P led Wall Street out of a hole while the majority of stocks have barely moved off their bases; but show life.
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