Freepik Time for a retrospective on how the various surveys are doing on forecasting year-on-year CPI inflation. 
Figure 1: Actual CPI y/y inflation (bold black), U. Michigan survey (tan), NY Fed survey (blue), and Survey of Professional Forecasters (green +), all in %. November CPI is Cleveland Fed nowcast of 12/8. December U. Michigan observation is preliminary. NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded gray. Source: BLS, U. Michigan via FRED, NY Fed, Philadelphia Fed, NBER and author’s calculations. Several interesting points.
Note that the downside surprise on inflation expectations was matched by upside surprise in consumer sentiment in the Michigan survey.
Figure 2: Michigan survey on inflation y/y (tan), on sentiment (teal). Bloomberg consensus (pink +) December figures are preliminary. NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded gray. U. Michigan via FRED, NBER, and Bloomberg.More By This Author:Michigan Sentiment SurprisesFT-IGM (Booth School) U.S. Macroeconomists Survey on the OutlookIs Economic Activity Really A Lot Lower Than It Seems?
