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Is the Fed’s signaling the end of rate hikes and potential cuts this year a good thing or a bad thing?
Does the sub-4% yield on the 10-year US Treasury note presage bad times?
Have the bear’s changed their tone?
After fearing a Fed-driven recession for the better part of two years and hoping for the moment that the Fed would relent, the moment has come. The inflation numbers continue to look better. The economy appears to be rolling along quite nicely with no recession and low unemployment. The market, if you consider the Dow Jones Industrials to be somewhat of a proxy for ‘slow growth’ or ‘older economy stocks’, has begun to make an orderly string of new all-time closing highs. On top of this, the market has broadened significantly. In just 48 days the Russell 2000 small cap index has made a V-bottom from a new 52-week low to a new 52-week high, the shortest turnaround of this index in its entire existence.Yet we are beginning to see headlines like this (A.K.A, The New Narrative): “The Bulls Are Back. They May Not Like the Reasons Why the Fed Is Easing.” (Barron’s-12/15/2023–You may need WSJ or Barron’s sub to view) The reasoning behind the headline is as follows, “The Fed doesn’t cut interest rates to be magnanimous; they cut interest rates because they see weakness in the economy or rising financial risks,” Donabedian says. He expects that to play out next year as the proverbial “long and variable lags” of monetary tightening are felt in the economy.” (David Donabedian, chief investment officer at CIBC Private Wealth US)What about the possibility that the Fed may see their job, with cautionary notes-still data dependent, complete for now and they are now focusing on the other part of their dual mandate, full employment?Remember, the narrative has been worry that the Fed would drive the economy into the ditch by keeping rates high. Now it is they see the ditch! There is no middle ground. The punditry corps just cannot be happy.Is the Ten-year yield below 4% a bad omen? DoubleLine Capital founder and CIO, Jeff Gundlach, sees the 10-year yield breaking below 4% (3.915% 12/15 close) as a “fire” alarm going off signaling great weakness in the economy ahead. (the 10-yr. hit a 16-year high of 5% in mid-October). This suggests that shrewd investors are buying into the 10-year, sending its price up and yield down, for safety. My read is that it may suggest that inflation may be more tame than expected allowing the Fed to ease more than expected, and that 4% for 10 years looks pretty good to investors in a lower inflation environment. Mind you, the yield on the 10-year is one basis for pricing mortgages and auto loans. I would think that this is good news no matter the motivation investors may have to buy the T-note.Da Bears continue to be Da BearsOthers with permanently negative views on the market and the economy have seized on the new narrative: “Fed is looking beyond the incoming economic data, says Rosenberg’s David Rosenberg” In the attached video from CNBC, he explains why recent good news from the Fed is bad news for the market. It’s heads you lose, tails you lose.Josh Brown Says it allJosh Brown, CEO of Ritholtz Wealth Management, says it all in 5 minutes and 58 seconds. He lays out the bull case regarding inflation and valuation with historical perspectives seldom given on any financial media platforms. I believe it is worth your time to click on this link and hear his well-wrought case as to why there is tremendous opportunity in today’s market. It is worth your time!Bottom LineThis market is very strong and broadening out significantly. If you have been kept on the sidelines or have been reluctant to invest because of the incorrect drumbeat that forecasted economic doom because the Fed was raising rates too fast, too much, it is time to rethink your position. This narrative appears to have been incorrect. Now, many of those same people are speculating a recession is coming because the Fed is in the beginning stages of lowering rates. You can’t win with these guys. Don’t let the noise keep you on the sidelines or scare you out of the market. The secular bull continues.More By This Author:Is The Market’s Recent Strength All About Expected Rate Cuts Or Is Something Else At Play? Powell Speaks – The Market Cringes – Then Moves On – You Should TooWhy Energy Demand Should Be The Last Thing You Worry About When Investing In Oil Stocks