We kicked off the day with NFIB Business Optimism Index at 5:00 A.M., US Trade Balance, Exports & Imports at 7:30 A.M., Redbook YoY at 7:55 A.M., RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index at 9:00 A.M., Fed Barr Speech at 11:00 A.M., 3-Year Note Auction at 12:00 P.M., API Energy Stocks at 3:30 P.M., LMI Logistics Managers Index Current.
Image Source: UnsplashIn the current geopolitical surroundings, no matter how hard algorithm and funds may get a reality check carrying their largest net short position since the pandemic. However, the energies and grains are sending a blunt fundamental warning, be prepared in the not so far future to be paying even higher in food & energy. With this economy it is not welcome news at all, but be prepared and hedge price spikes.The Manheim Used Vehicle Index for December showed further erosion in wholesale used vehicle prices at dealer auctions. The index was down 0.5% from November and was down 7% from a year ago. The Manheim Used Vehicle Index for December showed further erosion in wholesale used vehicle prices at dealer auctions. The index was down 0.5% from November and was down 7% from a year ago. The average car price at dealer auctions was $18,657, down from 20,060 last year and a record high of 23,574 that was scored in 2022. It was also the lowest monthly average sales price in 33 months. A recovery in new car sales added to used vehicle inventories. Manheim estimated that used retail sales in December were up 3% from November and were 1% higher than a year ago. However, used retail inventories were estimated at 56 days of supply, up 2 days from November and 1 day less than a year ago. CBOT grains are higher in a Tuesday turnaround following an ugly start to the year. Egypt’s GASC is back tendering for world wheat, while traders debate Brazilian corn/soy crop sizes, before tomorrow’s CONAB estimates. Moreover, questions abound on whether soybean oil values reached record levels (trading under the value of used cooking oil) to garner additional demand from the renewable diesel industry. It’s soybean oil-not soybean meal-that must sustain CBOT soybean futures due to expandingUS crush capacity in the last half of 2024. The US and the world will have an expanding supply of soybean meal beyond May. Open interest rose 9,838 contracts in Chicago wheat, 19,887 contracts of corn, and 5,553 contracts in soybeans. Soybean meal open interest was up 4,825 contracts and soybean oil was up 2,215 contracts. CBOT corn open interest is now up 83,000 contracts in the first 5 trading days of 2024. New bearish bets were placed in recent days with the index und rebalance helping to reflect on new ownership on Monday. Were getting Close. KATY Get Ready To BAR THE DOOR! Soaking rain due in Brazil this week, with the South American forecasts leaning broadly nonthreatening, but regional issues persist, and odds are high that drier than normal weather returns to northern Brazil mid-January onward. Moisture has stabilized in Mato Grosso, while deficits widen to concerning levels in Sao Paulo and Mato Grosso do Sul. Argentine weather conditions are normal/favorable. The EU & GFS models are in decent agreement that rainfall this week worth 2-4” impacts Mato Grosso, Goias and Bahia, while precipitation stays absent from more central regions of Brazil. Additional heavy showers impact N-E Argentina Tues-Thurs. An expansive Ridge of high pressure returns to Central & Northern Brazil beyond Jan 13-14. Rainfall will then be funneled into Argentina, while this upper air pattern hinders moisture from reaching Mato Grosso do Sul and Mato Grosso. It’s not a completely dry forecast, but N Brazil rainfall becomes more scattered/erratic in the 8-15 day period. The duration of this weather pattern must be closely monitored.More By This Author:The Corn & Ethanol Report For Monday, January 8The Game Of Volatility Has Yet To Begin. The Corn & Ethanol Report Cheap Corn + Ethanol Profit Margins & Exprts. The Corn & Ethanol Report
