Image Source: PixabayNY Fed median expected y/y CPI inflation at 3%. Nowcast for core y/y at 3.9%.
Figure 1: Instantaneous CPI inflation (bold black), y/y core CPI (blue), Bloomberg consensus (green square), median expected CPI y/y CPI inflation from NY Fed (red). December observations for CPI, core CPI 1/8/2024 Cleveland Fed nowcasts. NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded gray. Instantaneous inflation per Eeckhout (2023), T=12, a=4. Source: BLS, NY Fed, Cleveland Fed, Bloomberg, NBER, and author’s calculation.More By This Author:Are We In Recession? The Sahm Rule Now & 2007 What’s The Actual Strength Of The Labor Market? CPS vs CES vs ADP vs ISMThe Employment Release & Business Cycle Indicators
