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GDP at 1.5%, PCE at 1.8%.
Figure 1: Instantaneous inflation (T=12, a=4) for monthly GDP deflator (black), core PCE (red), per Eeckhout (2023). NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded gray. Source: S&P Global Market Insights, BEA, NBER and author’s calculations.More By This Author:Still Waiting For The Recession, Weekly Data Through 12/30 Is Velocity Stable? Part MXXVIBusiness Cycle Indicators At The Start Of 2024
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