Existing Home Sales Surge 9.5 Percent, Median Sales Price Up 8th Month -

Existing Home Sales Surge 9.5 Percent, Median Sales Price Up 8th Month

Mar 21, 2024Jeremy ParkinsonFinance0

Existing-home Sales data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) via the St. Louis Fed
Largest Monthly Increase in a YearThe NAR reports Existing-Home Sales Vaulted 9.5% in February, Largest Monthly Increase in a YearKey Highlights

Existing-home sales surged 9.5% in February to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.38 million, the largest monthly increase since February 2023.

Sales declined 3.3% from the previous year.

The median existing-home sales price elevated 5.7% from February 2023 to $384,500 – the eighth consecutive month of year-over-year price gains.

The inventory of unsold existing homes increased 5.9% from one month ago to 1.07 million at the end of February, or the equivalent of 2.9 months’ supply at the current monthly sales pace.

First-time buyers were responsible for 26% of sales in February, down from 28% in January and 27% in February 2023.

Properties typically remained on the market for 38 days in February, up from 36 days in January and 34 days in February 2023.

All-cash sales accounted for 33% of transactions in February, up from 32% in January and 28% one year ago.

Existing-Home Sales Percent Change from Month Ago
February was only the 6th monthly increase in 25 months.The seasonal impact is interesting. Sales rose in January and February for 2023 and 2024 with big jumps in February of both years.January and February account for 4 of the 6 positive months out of the last 25 months. Looking back another month, January of 2022 was also positive.Are people retiring in January and moving in February?
Existing-Home Sales Supply
Existing-Home Sales Percent Change from Year Ago
Data on the St. Louis Fed is limited. Year-over-year sales are down for at least 20 consecutive months.Existing-Home Sales Since 1968 Existing Home Sales chart courtesy of Trading Economics
To put the rise in perspective, existing-home sales are now back yo to a level first reached in 1998.One of the key stats in the report is first-time buyers were responsible for only 26 percent of sales.Of that 26 percent, I wonder how many struck it big in the stock market, bitcoin, or technology job.This is not a market very friendly to new buyers.
US Drops to Number #23 in the World Happiness ReportFor the first time in the history of the report, the US dropped out of the top twenty happiest nations. The youth poll (30 and under) is a disaster for the US, Germany, Canada, France, Japan, and China.
Yesterday, I noted US Drops to Number #23 in the World Happiness ReportThe US fell to #23 but averages do not tell the story.Of those 60 and older the US was #8. Of those 30 and younger, the US was #62.In the US, those age 30 and younger believe they will be worse off than their parents. I think they are correct in that assessment.The economy is allegedly booming, but only the asset holders have benefitted.
Gen Z, the Most Pessimistic Generation in HistoryYoung adults are more skeptical of government and pessimistic about the future than any living generation before them. This is with reason, and it’s likely to decide the election.
Economic RealityGen Z may be the first generation in US history that is not better off than their parents.Many have given up on the idea they will ever be able to afford a home.The economy is allegedly booming (I disagree). Regardless, stress over debt is high with younger millennials and zoomers.This has been a constant theme of mine for many months.
Auto Loan Delinquencies
Serious delinquencies on auto loans have jumped from under 3 percent in mid-2021 to to 5 percent at the end of 2023 for age group 18-29.Age group 30-39 is also troubling. Serious delinquencies for age groups 18-29 and 30-39 are at the highest levels since 2010.For further discussion please see Credit Card and Auto Delinquencies Soar, Especially Age Group 18 to 39
Generational Homeownership Rates Home ownership rates courtesy of Apartment List
The above chart is from the Apartment List’s 2023 Millennial Homeownership ReportThose struggling with rent are more likely to be Millennials and Zoomers than Generation X, Baby Boomers, or members of the Silent Generation.The same age groups struggling with credit card and auto delinquencies.Many have concluded they will never be able to afford a house or have kids. Those who have concluded that are likely correct.For more discussion, please see Gen Z, the Most Pessimistic Generation in History, May Decide the ElectionAnd today we see another new low in first-time buyers.It all ties together.More By This Author:Fed’s Dot Plot Is More Hawkish Towards Cuts In March Vs. DecemberThe Fed Stand Pat, Is “Highly Attentive To Inflation Risk”US Drop to Number 23 in the World Happiness Report