Barring a 2% sell-off in the final hour of trading today, the S&P 500 will end March with a gain of more than 1%, making it the 5th straight month with 1%+ gains. Since WW2, there have only been twelve prior five-month streaks like this, and they’re shown in the table below. Next to each occurrence, we show how the S&P did in the months and year following. As shown, the month after these five-month winning streaks has been hit or miss. We’ve actually seen declines in the next month four out of the last five times this has happened. But maybe more notable is that one year after these prior twelve occurrences, the S&P was higher all twelve times with an average gain of 14.3%.
Of course, past performance is no guarantee of future results, but we think market historicals are a good way to stay grounded during market run-ups and pullbacks.
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