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The NZD/USD pair remains on the defensive around 0.6000 despite the weaker US Dollar (USD) during Wednesday’s early Asian session. The ANZ Business Confidence will be due from the New Zealand docket, and Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) Governor Orr is set to speak later in the day. Nonetheless, the market is likely to be mute in light trading ahead of the Good Friday holiday.
The US Federal Reserve (Fed) decided to hold interest rates between 5.25% and 5.5% at its March meeting last week. The Fed Chair Jerome Powell did not specify the timing for cutting rates but hinted that the first rate cut will be determined by what inflation measures and other key economic data show. Several Fed officials agreed to wait and see more evidence of inflation that ensures it heads back down to the 2% target before it cuts rates. Fed Governor Christopher Waller and Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee anticipate three cuts this year. Dovish comments from Fed officials weigh on the Greenback against its rivals.
On the Kiwi front, the technical recession in New Zealand’s economy in the final quarter of 2024 leaves ample space for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) to cut the official cash rate (OCR) sooner than expected. An aggressive RBNZ rate-cutting cycle would in turn likely weigh on the NZD and create a headwind for the NZD/USD pair.
The US Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE) data for February are due on Friday. The Fed’s Powell is also scheduled to speak on the same day. In the case of slowing inflation data, this could prevent any rate cuts from the Fed and exert some selling pressure on the USD.
NZD/USD
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