COTTON
General Comments: Cotton closed a little higher yesterday in recovery trading and on the changes made by USDA in its WASDE updates on Friday. USDA cut domestic production and increased demand for reduced ending stocks estimates. It also increased demand from India and China in the world estimates. It is too early to plant in Texas but the heat and dry weather raises concerns about production potential later in the growing season and blackened soils might not permit much planting, anyway. The demand news has been solid in this market for the last several weeks. The US economic data has been positive, but the Chinese economic data has not been real positive and demand concerns are still around. There are still many concerns about demand from China and the rest of Asia due to the slow economic return of China in the world market.
Overnight News: The Delta will get mostly dry weather and near normal temperatures. The Southeast will see mostly dry conditions and below normal temperatures. Texas will have mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 89.52 ct/lb. ICE daily certified stocks are now 21,233 bales, from 21,233 bales yesterday. ICE said that 1 contract was posted for delivery against March futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 10 contacts.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 92.50, 90.90, and 88.10 May, with resistance of 97.70, 98.40 and 100.50 May.FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ closed lower yesterday on follow through selling as USDA increased its US production estimates for Oranges slightly on Friday. The daily and weekly chart trends are mixed. Prices had been moving lower on the increased production potential for Florida and the US and also in Brazil but held late last week as current supplies remain very tight amid only incremental relief for supplies is forecast for the coming new crop season. There are no weather concerns to speak of for Florida or for Brazil right now. The weather has improved in Brazil with some moderation in temperatures and increased rainfall amid reports of short supplies in Florida and Brazil are around but will start to disappear as the weather improves and the new crop gets harvested.
Overnight News: Florida should get scattered showers or dry conditions. Temperatures will average near normal. Brazil should get scattered showers and above normal temperatures. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against March futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 300 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 350.00, 343.00, and 335.00 May, with resistance at 369.00, 378.00, and 389.00 May.COFFEE
General Comments: New York and London closed lower Friday but chart trends are up in both markets. Robusta offers remain difficult to find and the lack of offer of Robusta is a bullish force behind the market action, and reports indicate that Brazil producers are reluctant sellers as well as they apparently have already sold a lot. Brazil weather continues to improve for Coffee production and conditions are called good. Rains continued to fall in parts of Brazil Coffee areas. Brazil weather is good for the best crop production.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are higher today at 0.424 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 185.10 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly scattered showers with near normal temperatures. Central America will get mostly dry conditions. Vietnam will see scattered showers. ICE NY said that 0 delivery notices were posted against March contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 974 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 201.00 May. Support is at 182.00, 180.00, and 178.00 May, and resistance is at 190.00, 194.00 and 196.00 May. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 2550 May. Support is at 3250, 3220, and 3190 May, with resistance at 3330, 3360, and 3390 May.SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London closed higher yesterday and trends are turning up on the daily charts. Ideas of weaker demand are around the market and are causing the selling, but producers do not appear to be selling much. The market continues to see stressful conditions in Asian production areas. There are worries about the Thai and Indian production. Offers from Brazil are still active but other origins. are still not offering in large amounts except for Ukraine.
Overnight News: Brazil will get rains in the south and scattered showers in the north. Temperatures should average above normal. India will get mostly dry conditions and below normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 2250, 2360, and 2390 May. Support is at 2110, 2050, and 1930 May and resistance is at 2200, 2260, and 2290 May. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 630.00, 654.00, and 676.00 May. Support is at 610.00, 597.00, and 590.00 May, with resistance at 624.00, 638.00, and 650.00 May.COCOA
General Comments: New York and London were higher and chart trends began to turn up again and reflect the lack of supply in the world market as well as demand from nontraditional sources along with traditional buyers. Production in West Africa could be reduced this year due to the extreme weather which included Harmattan conditions. The availability of Cocoa from West Africa remains restricted and projections for another production deficit against demand for the coming year are increasing. Ideas of tight supplies remain based on more reports of reduced arrivals in Ivory Coast and Ghana continue. Demand continues to be strong, especially from nontraditional buyers of Cocoa.
Overnight News: Isolated showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average near normal. Brazil will get isolated showers and above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 4.116 million bags. ICE NY said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against March futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 1,007 contacts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 6850 May. Support is at 6470, 6290, and 6200 May, with resistance at 6800, 6860, and 6920 May. Trends in London are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 5040, 4020, and 3900 May, with resistance at 5620, 5720, and 5840 May.More By This Author:Grains Report – Monday, March, 11
Softs Report – Friday, March 8
Grains Report – Thursday, March 7
