The Newsletter For April 2024 -

The Newsletter For April 2024

Mar 31, 2024Jeremy ParkinsonFinance0

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Strategy Performance
All of our strategies were positive for the month of March, with the big winner being the Maximum Yield Strategy with a return of 11.5%. Below are the March returns, as well as the year-to-date performances, of our strategies. As expected, the Crypto & Leveraged Top 2 Strategy tops the list, with a return of 18.9%. Our most popular strategies, such as the Nasdaq 100 strategy, the UIS strategy, and the Top 3 strategies, have averaged 5%-6% returns so far. While they have fallen behind the pure S&P 500 performance, which is currently at 9% year-to-date, there are still benefits to following these strategies rather than solely holding plain equity or a few individual stocks.One advantage is that in the event of a market correction, it is likely to be less severe since all our strategies incorporate a hedge. Recently, this hedge has been in the form of the Cash sub-strategy, which is currently invested in a GSY, a money market fund.

The Way Forward: Embracing the Inflation Hypothesis
As we transition through the fourth year of this decade, it is an opportune moment to evaluate the validity of certain long-term hypotheses. A hypothesis that we have looked at before suggests that we have transitioned from a low-rate environment to a long-term inflationary phase. In such an environment, holding stocks and commodities is favorable, while being in cash or bonds is disadvantageous.Thus far, this hypothesis seems to be holding true: The SPY continues upwards, undeterred. Gold breaks out of 13-year correction. Bitcoin reaches 2021 all-time highs. 20-year Treasuries bonds loose almost half their value. Additionally:

The S&P 500 is reaching new highs.

Gold has broken a 13-year cycle and surpassed the $2000 price target.

Bitcoin has surpassed the $70,000 milestone, driven by new ETF launches.

Bonds have shown underperformance, while cash has performed moderately well, especially with a 5% risk-free interest rate for a one-month bill, but still lagging behind equities.

An anomaly is observed in agricultural commodities, such as grains and soybeans as well as natural gas, which have experienced a sharp decline, potentially due to supply-side factors like the lifting of restrictions.

If we are indeed in a long-term inflationary period, history shows that it’s best to be invested in equities and commodities. Despite the consensus leaning towards anticipated rate cuts in June, the actual implementation remains uncertain.More By This Author:The Logical-Invest Newsletter For March 2024 The Logical-Invest Newsletter For February 2024The Newsletter For January 2024