Image source: PixabayFrom BEA:
Source: BEA.Nominal personal income rose in all states.
Source: BEA.However, what we care about is real personal income. I deflate using (nationwide) Chained CPI inflation (2.71% q/q AR), and calculate Q4 q/q AR growth.
Figure 1: Real personal income growth in 2023Q4, annualized. Source: BEA, BLS, and author’s calculations.Seven states exhibit negative growth in real personal income: Iowa, Kansas, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota, Arkansas and Hawaii.Coincident indices through January paint a different picture from that derived from GDP or real personal income.
Source: Philadelphia Fed. Here’s a time series of the diffusion index for the 3 month growth rate of the Coincident Index.
Figure 1: Diffusion index for 3 month growth rate of coincident indices. Source: Philadelphia Fed, March 2024.More By This Author:An Event Study: News And Trump Media And Technology Group, Monday, April 1Explaining The 2022-23 Disinflation Out-Of-SampleGDP, GDO, GDP+ And Final Sales
