Crisis Cycle Investing


Last year I wrote a series of letters reviewing different ideas of repeatable cycles in history. All four authors I reviewed, and your humble analyst, all foresee a major crisis/upheaval coming around the end of this decade.However, we don’t know what the crisis will actually look like. Most of the theories I reviewed see war as a possibility. Not to mention the brewing government debt crisis that will create its own dynamics. We really don’t know how this will turn out. Who is going to be in charge politically? What compromises will have to be made in the midst of crisis and how will they affect our lives and portfolios?A critical question is how do we get as much buying power as possible from the beginning of the crisis through to the other side? Part of the answer is Warren Buffett’s admonition to never bet against America. Better to do as he does, investing in specific parts of America.I said earlier this year I was transferring my portfolio management and partnership to an independent investment advisor firm called The Bahnsen Group founded by David Bahnsen. I have known David personally for well over a decade and knew his father (brilliant theologian Greg Bahnsen), even publishing some of his books. David and I met on the set of CNBC’s Fast Money in 2010 and discovered that personal connection. Our friendship has since developed into a very close one.David runs a blend of dividend growth stocks, alternatives, and special situations. David and his extensive research team excel in finding those companies you want to bet on—that will be around after the crisis.David also focuses on the kind of “alternatives” which already comprise the bulk of my own portfolio. So why use TBG if I am theoretically enough of an expert to do it myself? Because David runs over $5 billion and has access to high-quality managers and funds that I simply can’t get access to.I have spent a lot of time observing David and his team. His rapidly growing firm is extraordinarily well managed, with over 60 associates and offices in 7 states. They can do bespoke portfolios, do taxes and estate planning, manage family offices, and see a large number of special opportunities. It is almost an art form in how they can make those opportunities and managers available to smaller accredited investors.David is one of the most brilliant thinkers I know. Facts just roll off his fingers. Philosophically we are aligned in almost every important way. I believe he can adapt to whatever changes will have to be made in the future, and there will likely be many, in a way that I will be comfortable with. Further, I am 75 and Shane is (ahem) younger. I need to make sure that my portfolio outlasts me and there is someone to take care of Shane if I am not there. I trust David to make that happen, from both a personal standpoint and as a business professional.Today David and I will start a series of letters on portfolio construction using dividend growth stocks coupled with alternatives. This isn’t the only way to navigate the crisis I see coming, but it is the way I am going to utilize.But first, it is Strategic Investment Conference time where the theme is appropriately Into the Storm. We’ll begin the conference with a dive into the crisis cycle with the authors I have reviewed giving us their insights. Then we have a number of extraordinarily successful investment professionals whose job it is to get their own assets as well as their clients’ assets to the other side of the crisis. We will be asking them what they are doing. Others will be describing various aspects of geopolitical, political, and economic issues. Mario Gabelli, Leon Cooperman, Howard Marks, Ron Baron, Felix Zulauf, Joe Lonsdale (co-founder of Palantir), and over 40 other faculty will help us explore the future.One of the most prominent and decorated combat commanders in American history, Gen. David H. Petraeus, USA (Ret.) will give us high-level insights into the current global geopolitical landscape and provide a clear perspective of the situation in Ukraine, Russia, the Middle East, and ongoing tensions that matter to investors.No one has a crystal ball, but we do know what will come on the other side of challenging times and crises because something hasn’t stopped: human innovation. Faced with problems, we find solutions. And faced with new problems, we find new solutions.This process never stops. That’s why I’m proud to announce that Matt Ridley, author of numerous books, including The Rational Optimist and The Evolution of Everything, will be joining our faculty at SIC 2024. (I place The Evolution of Everything in my top five most important books to recommend.)For the first time at the SIC, celebrated investor Mario Gabelli will join us. In the late 1960s, Mr. Gabelli covered Pinkertons, which Warren Buffett owned. More important, Mr. Buffett was taught by Professor Graham at Columbia Business School and Mr. Gabelli was taught by Graham and Dodd’s successor Roger Murray.The conference will stretch over five days from April 22-May 1. You can watch it live, review at your leisure, read the transcripts, or listen to the podcasts. Strategic Investment Conference and you can still get the early-bird discount. Don’t procrastinate. You really will want this insight for your own life and world.And now, let’s look at dividends, courtesy of David Bahnsen.More By This Author:Monetary DilemmaPowering The AIA Valuation Conversation

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