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A few hours ago, spot Gold again rallied to a new all-time high at $2,288. Gold tends to be positively correlated with risk assets, many of which have been enjoying rallies to new highs in recent days. Trend traders will want to be long here. Other precious metals have also been seeing gains, with Silver now trading at a new 2-year high price.
In public remarks, US Fed Member Daly stated that he expects 3 rate cuts to happen in 2024, in line with more dovish expectations which have been reasserting themselves.
The Japanese Yen continues to be weak, keeping the USD/JPY currency pair near the record high it made very recently just below ¥152. Japanese financial officials will likely threaten intervention if ¥152 is tested again, but it seems likely that the price won’t fall very far in the meantime, giving traders potential opportunities to trade that range. Trend traders will still be interested on being long of the USD/JPY and in being short of the Japanese Yen in general. Analysts speculate that intervention by the Bank of Japan, if it comes, will likely drive the price down temporarily to about ¥147 / ¥147.50.
Crude Oil is looking bullish, with both WTI and Brent hitting new 5-month high prices in recent hours.
The minor commodity Cocoa continues to look very bullish over the long term, although the short-term price action is starting to suggest a deeper bearish retracement. The commodity superfood has almost tripled in value over the last year alone, with many analysts suggesting supply side shortages are at least partly to blame for the meteoric rise. There is more and more demand for Cocoa every year as it is coveted as a key ingredient for chocolate but also as a superfood in its own right. Trend traders will be interested on the long side, although which such high volatility and sharp gains, it could come crashing down at any time, so trend traders must be careful to use a disciplined stop loss if going long. As well as Cocoa futures, there are Cocoa ETNs available which may be more suitable for retail traders and investors.
Yesterday’s release of German Preliminary CPI came in slightly lower than expected, at a month-on-month increase of 0.4% compared to the expected 0.5%.
Yesterday’s release of US JOLTS Job Openings data came in exactly as expected.
There will be releases today of:
- The ADP Non-Farm Employment Claims Forecast
- US ISM Services PMI
Fed Chair Jerome Powell will be giving a minor speech later.
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