Action remains ‘tech’ – and not much else. There was no slowing growth in a few major tech stocks; although some have higher expenses going forward. I note that AI remains the core focus; and Fed movement (plus geopolitics of course) the significant risks. For the moment the bulls pulled victory from the jaws of defeat in mega-caps; but it also helped specialized smaller-caps. We were ‘sort of neutral’ about the end of Friday activity, but it held traction as preferred; military weekend or not.If it looks like the Fed is still thinking about fighting excessive price levels with higher interest rates, you can nix big upside prospects, for what remains very mixed market conditions otherwise (essentially bifurcated as noted). For sure individual stocks do respond to fundamental changes; but an overall favorable backdrop seems more comfortable even for speculators in small-cap ‘bets’.The majority of growth has been ‘in’ the mega-caps stocks (as far as earnings calculated for S&P); whereas the intervening equity shakeout in those stocks, sent a telegraphed message about risk to the high-flyers from time-to-time.Of course S&P valuation remains high; and not particularly deserving of even higher multiples. Some small stocks emerging from incubation essentially for a few months, before recent volatility, showed how fast they can move, ‘when’ the shorts get scrambled, which can happen. It did; and some are posturing at this time for potential runs higher; but some are pre-earnings coin-flips, where more will depend on ‘guidance’ and a sense of progress from their leadership.Market X-ray: Next week is the Quarterly Refunding announcement. It’s not essentially that there’s any surprise there (meaning lower Auction levels by the Fed). We do have a Fed Meeting; so expect nothing from the Fed; but Powell’s ‘press conference tone’ will matter.If the Fed talks about rate hikes ‘on the table’; market plunges; if the Fed talks about more ‘even-keeled’ policy, with QT cut by probably half (that would be dovish) and hence bullish for stocks. But let’s see how that goes Wednesday, as this remains an extended S&P that aborted the corrective pattern; but we’d picked-up on that as leadership stocks reported; and pointed the way higher.This week was interesting. We saw improved breadth in the last couple days of the week, and called for a rebound before any new declining (or ‘C’ wave) effort. That effort began but noted would be rebuffed after Wednesday’s close earnings; and more of that late Thursday; all wild. While not anticipating huge unlimited thrusts higher in the overall roadmap, we were concerned that short sellers could be ‘caught’, so went with it and called for the extension. Shows why we don’t short such stocks. Plus small ones did a bit better amidst all this.In the food-ordering field, they mentioned a large multi-chain firm; we primarily at this point suspect it’s ‘Yum’, which owns KFC, TacoBell etc. But it might not be. So again ‘if’ it is time for them to announce either; shares jump and we’ll have to see if sometimes-sneaky insiders sell on that or do another offering.More By This Author:Market Briefing For Thursday, April 25
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