Image Source: PexelsAre you better of than you expected four years ago? I use trend growth 2016-2019 to figure out what is “expected”.
Figure 1: Consumption per capita in Ch.2017$, calculated using consumption divided by population (blue), and 2016-19 (stochastic) trend (tan). NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded gray. Source: BEA, Census via FRED, NBER, and author’s calculations.More By This Author:Decomposing SentimentAre You Better Off Than You Were Four Years Ago? Confidence, Sentiment, And News In April: Some Time Series
