EUR/USD Slips Further Back On Thursday As Rate Cut Hopes Dry Up


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  • EUR/USD eases lower as risk-off flows bolster the Greenback.
  • A spike in US Services PMIs reignite fears of sticky inflation.
  • Fed rate cut hopes hinging in easing services inflation stumble.
  • EUR/USD headed lower on Thursday, driven closer to the 1.0800 handle after an unexpected upswing in US Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) figures sparked renewed fears of fewer Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts. This sent investors into the safe-haven US Dollar and deflated the Euro despite better-than-expected HCOB PMI figures earlier in the day.European and US PMI figures on Thursday both beat market expectations, with figures broadly printing above expectations and improving on previous figures, but a higher-than-forecast upswing in US Services PMIs from 51.3 to 54.8 pummeled broad-market expectations for a Fed rate cut in September.According to the CME’s FedWatch Tool, rate traders are pricing in barely even odds of at least a quarter-point cut at the September Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. Significantly lower than the 70% odds that were priced in at the beginning of the trading week, investors are grappling with the possibility of no Fed cuts in 2024.Traders’ broad hopes for Fed rate trims have been slowly ground to a paste through 2024. In December, markets were broadly pricing in at least six rate cuts from the Fed through the end of the year. Fast forward to late May, and investors are scrambling to hold onto hopes of a single cut, potentially as late as December.Friday brings a Gross Domestic Product (GDP) update for Germany, which is expected to hold steady at 0.2% for the first quarter. US Durable Goods Orders in April are slated to print during Friday’s US market session, and are forecast to backslide -0.8% MoM compared to the previous month’s 2.6%.

    EURO PRICE THIS WEEK
     The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies this week. Euro was the weakest against the US Dollar.

    EUR/USD technical outlook
     EUR/USD is waffling into the reach of the 1.0800 handle, trading on the south side of the 200-hour Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.0833. The Euro took an early run at a high bid on Thursday of 1.0860, but short pressure quickly dragged the Fiber down into fresh lows for the trading week.On daily candlesticks, EUR/USD is getting dragged back into consolidation at the 200-day EMA at 1.0801, and the pair has declined for all but one of the last five trading days.

    EUR/USD hourly chart
     

    EUR/USD daily chart
     

    EUR/USD
     

    OVERVIEW Today last price 1.0814 Today Daily Change -0.0009 Today Daily Change % -0.08 Today daily open 1.0823

     

    TRENDS Daily SMA20 1.078 Daily SMA50 1.0778 Daily SMA100 1.0816 Daily SMA200 1.0788

     

    LEVELS Previous Daily High 1.0864 Previous Daily Low 1.0818 Previous Weekly High 1.0895 Previous Weekly Low 1.0766 Previous Monthly High 1.0885 Previous Monthly Low 1.0601 Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 1.0835 Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 1.0846 Daily Pivot Point S1 1.0806 Daily Pivot Point S2 1.0789 Daily Pivot Point S3 1.076 Daily Pivot Point R1 1.0852 Daily Pivot Point R2 1.0881 Daily Pivot Point R3 1.0898

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