Image Source: PixabayManufacturing employment is up relative to 3 years ago. Why so much dissatisfaction?
Figure 1: Employment in manufacturing, 000’s, s.a. (blue). Source: BLS.Year-on-year through March, manufacturing employment is up 1.6% (log terms). Real wages are up as well, although only recouping 2020M11 levels recently (but exceeding pre-pandemic levels), while hours are down vis-a-vis peak 2022M10 levels.
Figure 2: Manufacturing hourly earnings in 2023$ (blue, left scale), and aggregate hours worked in manufacturing (tan, right scale), both for production and nonsupervisory workers. Real wage calculated using chained CPI seasonally adjusted by author using X-13. Source: BLS, and author’s calculations.While the erosion of real wages during 2022-23 might explain some of the glum, I suspect another part is that manufacturing employment growth is not always located where manufacturing was concentrated before. While this could probably be seen at the county level, I’m going to examine the state level. Figure 3 displays year-on-year manufacturing employment growth by state versus manufacturing employment share a year prior.
Figure 3: Manufacturing employment y/y growth through March 2024 versus manufacturing share of nonfarm payroll employment in March 2023. Nearest neighbor fit (window=0.6) (tan line). Washington DC omitted. Red dashed lines at national averages. Source BLS, and author’s calculations.Note that manufacturing intensive states like WI, MI, and IN have experience reductions in manufacturing employment, while those with little manufacturing (NM, NV, and to lesser extent WA) have rapid increases.This of course is an ongoing process, where manufacturing has been moving from the Great Lakes region to the South and elsewhere. However, I think it’s of interest to consider this process in a period when manufacturing employment has been relatively constant, and, yes, there’s been a redistribution of employment.More By This Author:In Recession? Real Time Vs. Final Revised DataMay 2024 Short Term Energy Outlook: WTI, Gasoline PricesConsumption Per Capita Relative To Trend
