The good news is:

 The NegativesThe first chart covers the last 6 months showing the Nasdaq composite (OTC) in blue and a 10% trend (19 day EMA) of Nasdaq new highs (OTC NH) in green.  Dashed vertical lines have been drawn on the 1st trading day of each month.  OTC NH will not confirm an index high, if there is one, anytime soon.   The next chart is similar to the one above except it shows the S&P 500 (SPX) in red and NY NH in green has been calculated with NYSE data.  NY NH also will not be confirming a new index high any time soon. The PositivesThe next chart covers the past 6 months showing the OTC in blue and a 40% trend (4 day EMA) of Nasdaq new highs divided by new highs + new lows (OTC HL Ratio), in red. Dashed horizontal lines have been drawn at 10% levels for the indicator; the line is solid at the 50%, neutral level (equal numbers of new highs and new lows).OTC HL made it into positive territory last week. The next chart is similar to the one above except it shows the SPX in red and NY HL ratio, in blue, has been calculated with NYSE data.NY HLR closed at a very strong 88%. The next chart covers the past 6 months showing the OTC in blue and a 10% trend (19 day EMA) of Nasdaq new lows (OTC NL) in brown.  OTC NL has been plotted on an inverted Y axis so decreasing numbers of new lows move the indicator upward (up is good).  OTC NL continued moving upward last week. The next chart is similar to the one above except it shows the SPX in red and NY NL, in blue, has been calculated with NYSE data.NY NL is also moving steadily upward. Summation indices are running totals of oscillator values.Short term momentum indicators applied to summation indices make them nearly binary.The next chart covers the past 6 months showing the SPX in red and momentum of summation indices of oscillators of advancing and declining issues, new highs and new lows and upside and downside volume on the NYSE.  The NY SI Mom’s are all maxed out on the upside. The next chart is similar to the one above; except it shows the Nasdaq composite (OTC), in blue and the SI’s have been generated from Nasdaq breadth data. Ditto Nasdaq SI’s.  SeasonalityNext week includes the 5 trading days prior to the 3rd Friday of May during the 4th year of the Presidential Cycle. The tables below show the daily change, on a percentage basis for that period. OTC data covers the period from 1963 to 2023 while SPX data runs from 1953 to 2023.  There are summaries for both the 4th year of the Presidential Cycle and all years combined.  Prior to 1953 the market traded 6 days a week so that data has been ignored.Average returns for the coming week have been negative by all measures. 
Report for the week before the 3rd Friday of May.

The number following the year is the position in the Presidential Cycle.

Daily returns from Monday through 3rd Friday.

OTC Presidential Year 4 (PY4)

Year Mon Tue Wed Thur Fri Totals

1964-4 0.13% -0.28% 0.25% -0.40% -0.38% -0.68%

1968-4 0.67% -0.38% -0.53% -0.07% -0.30% -0.62%

1972-4 0.70% 0.02% -0.46% 0.82% 1.02% 2.09%

1976-4 -0.32% 0.04% -0.31% 0.31% -0.16% -0.43%

1980-4 -0.07% 0.80% 1.08% 0.66% 0.42% 2.89%

Avg 0.22% 0.04% 0.01% 0.26% 0.12% 0.65%

1984-4 -0.68% 0.05% -0.13% -1.03% -0.61% -2.40%

1988-4 0.23% -0.29% -1.42% -0.20% -0.06% -1.74%

1992-4 0.23% -0.54% -0.27% -1.02% -0.35% -1.95%

1996-4 1.59% 1.03% -0.07% 0.46% 0.21% 3.22%

2000-4 2.23% 3.05% -1.95% -2.92% -4.19% -3.79%

Avg 0.72% 0.66% -0.77% -0.94% -1.00% -1.33%

2004-4 -1.45% 1.13% 0.02% -0.08% 0.82% 0.43%

2008-4 1.76% 0.27% 0.06% 1.48% -0.19% 3.38%

2012-4 -1.06% -0.30% -0.68% -2.10% -1.24% -5.39%

2016-4 1.22% -1.25% 0.50% -0.56% 1.21% 1.12%

2020-4 0.78% -2.06% -1.55% 0.91% 0.79% -1.13%

Avg 0.25% -0.44% -0.33% -0.07% 0.28% -0.32%

OTC summary for PY4 1964 – 2020

Avg 0.40% 0.08% -0.36% -0.25% -0.20% -0.33%

Win% 67% 53% 33% 40% 40% 40%

OTC summary for all years 1963 – 2023

Avg -0.05% 0.00% -0.07% 0.06% -0.18% -0.24%

Win% 49% 44% 57% 52% 42% 48%

SPX PY4

Year Mon Tue Wed Thur Fri Totals

1956-4 -0.55% -1.05% -0.69% 1.22% -0.47% -1.54%

1960-4 -0.09% 0.38% -0.04% 0.43% 0.27% 0.96%

1964-4 -0.12% 0.32% -0.23% -0.14% 0.30% 0.12%

1968-4 -0.31% -0.07% -0.05% -0.48% -0.72% -1.63%

1972-4 0.45% -0.19% 0.22% 0.98% 0.96% 2.43%

1976-4 -0.25% 0.17% -0.08% 0.81% -0.73% -0.07%

1980-4 0.06% 1.45% 0.52% 0.13% 0.34% 2.49%

Avg -0.04% 0.34% 0.07% 0.26% 0.03% 0.67%

1984-4 -0.62% 0.32% -0.01% -0.90% -0.51% -1.72%

1988-4 0.75% -1.28% -1.58% 0.49% 0.18% -1.45%

1992-4 0.59% -0.53% 0.04% -0.79% -0.74% -1.43%

1996-4 1.44% 0.62% -0.03% -0.09% 0.61% 2.56%

2000-4 2.21% 0.94% -1.24% -0.73% -2.10% -0.93%

Avg 0.87% 0.01% -0.56% -0.41% -0.51% -0.60%

2004-4 -1.06% 0.68% -0.26% 0.05% 0.40% -0.19%

2008-4 1.10% -0.04% 0.40% 1.06% 0.13% 2.65%

2012-4 -1.11% -0.57% -0.44% -1.51% -0.74% -4.37%

2016-4 0.98% -0.94% 0.02% -0.37% 0.60% 0.29%

2020-4 0.02% -2.05% -1.75% 1.15% 0.39% -2.24%

Avg -0.01% -0.59% -0.40% 0.08% 0.16% -0.77%

SPX summary for PY4 1956 – 2020

Avg 0.20% -0.11% -0.31% 0.08% -0.11% -0.24%

Win% 53% 47% 29% 53% 59% 41%

SPX summary for all years 1953 – 2020

Avg -0.05% 0.03% -0.04% -0.01% -0.09% -0.16%

Win% 51% 49% 49% 52% 51% 46% ConclusionAll of the major indices except the Russell 2000 are less than 1% off their all time highs. The perfect scenario would be a push to all time highs Monday or Tuesday that would be unconfirmed by the new high indicators followed by a seasonal decline for a couple weeks.The strongest sectors last week were Precious Metals and Utilities (for the 4th week) while the weakest were Health Care and Energy (for the 2nd week).I expect the major averages to be lower on Friday, May 17 than they were on Friday, May 11.   More By This Author:Technical Market Report For Saturday, May 4
Technical Market Report – Saturday, April 27
Technical Market Report – Saturday, April 20