Bullish view
Bearish view
The AUD/USD pair was flat on Monday morning ahead of the important economic numbers from the United States and Australia. It was trading at 0.6653, higher than last month’s low of 0.6360.
Key US and Australia dataThe US dollar moved sideways after the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) published April’s Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) report. The data confirmed that inflation is still stubbornly above the Fed’s target of 2.0% in April.The headline PCE report rose 0.3% MoM while the core PCE, which excludes the volatile food and energy prices rose 0.2%. On a YoY basis, the two numbers rose by 2.7% and 2.8% in April, in line with expectations.The takeaway of these numbers is that the Fed will embrace a wait-and-see attitude when determining when to cut interest rates. If the figures remain constantly above the Fed’s target of 2%, they will signal that the bank will hold rates steady for longer.Looking ahead, the key economic data to watch will be the upcoming US manufacturing PMI from S&P Global and the Institute of Supply Management (ISM). Economists expect the S&P data to show that the PMI rose to 50.9 in May while the ISM number rose to 50.0. Stronger PMI numbers will mean that the economy was starting to recover.Australia will publish the latest retail sales, current account, and company profits numbers on Tuesday. If these numbers, especially the retail sales one, come out stronger than expected, it will raise interest rates. Besides, the country’s statistics published a strong inflation report last week.The most important economic numbers to watch this week will be US jobs data. ADP will publish the latest private payrolls data on Wednesday while the BLS will release the official jobs numbers on Friday.
AUD/USD technical analysisThe AUD/USD exchange rate held steady on Monday morning. On the daily chart, it has moved slightly below the upper side of the descending trendline shown in blue. The pair has also risen above the first resistance of the Woodie pivot point.It has also jumped above the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) while the Awesome Oscillator has risen above the neutral point. Therefore, the pair will likely have a bullish breakout in the next few days as buyers target the second resistance of the Woodie pivot point at 0.6770.More By This Author:EUR/USD Forex Signal: Forecast As The US Dollar Index SpikesEUR/USD Forex Signal: Double Top Forms Ahead of Fed Beige BookAUD/USD Forex Signal: Fed And RBA Minutes Point To A Convergence
