Market Briefing For Tuesday June 25


‘The bar is high’ – for S&P to advanced substantially from these levels. So do I dismiss some of the stratospheric projections heard from a couple technical analysts or others? depositphotos The answer is not necessarily, but I’ve said for a while the logic for chasing the mega-caps was not there, so at the moment you may be seeing some that did chase selling (they caught AI fever), while redirecting a bit of funds into the under-exploited, but again it’s a tentative indication.Labor markets are actually cooling a bit, manufacturing may be contracting, of course the Auto Industry and Housing are both internally conflicted not to fail noting the Commercial Property issues which continue to bedevil some Banks even as most are effectively suppressing this from being a wide-open issue.  Most of the pressure on Monday was from the overworked mega-cap techs, so you had NDX, SOX and NASDAQ itself off while the RUT was actually up. Meanwhile Oil was up and lot, that doesn’t help the lower prices argument.  High-yields performed well through the Fed tightening cycle, and it’s odd yes, but again this was all extraordinarily bifurcated for many months so a cursory glance at S&P or NDX does not relay that this was and is not a ‘bull market’ in the classic sense and hasn’t been. If breadth perks-up in July it could be.It’s not just ARM (off 9 today) or Nvidia (off 8) and so on, it’s overdue rotation, and associated with improved broadening, but not particularly impactful as yet of course. Typically this should be consolidating a bit, then ideally up in July.Cautious words about the economy are being heard and I think appropriately. ‘Inflation is not the only worry’, which is that the Fed will have reason to shift a focus from fighting inflation to worrying about growth, but like Oil’s strength, it is hard to make that transition quite yet.  More By This Author:Market Briefing For Tuesday June 18Market Briefing For Monday June 17Market Briefing For Tuesday June 11

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