Motio Research’s initial estimate of U.S. median household income in April 2024 is $78,238. That figure represents a $67 (+0.1%) increase from the firm’s initial median household income estimate of $78,171 for March 2024.The firm also announced its first projection of the U.S. Census Bureau’s annual estimate of median household income for the 2023 calendar year, which won’t be announced until September 2024:
The 2023 value for the Census series is our prediction of the value to be published in September 2024. We project the Census nominal median household income to have increased by 6.7% in 2023, from $74,580 in 2022 to $79,547 in 2023, with a lower bound of $78,115 and an upper bound of $80,978.
The forecast of the Census nominal value entails a projected increase of 2.6% in the Census real median household income, from $77,510 in 2022 to $79,547 in 2023 (in 2023 dollars, using the Chained Consumer Price Index).
Motio Research’s monthly estimates of median household income are based on income data collected by the U.S. Census Bureau as part of its monthly Current Population Survey. The firm adjusts its monthly estimates to account for the effects of seasonality and inflation in its data, presenting its results in the form of an index with the median household income of January 2010 assigned a value of 100. The following screenshot of Motio Research’s Motio Research shows how this index has changed from January 2010 through April 2024: screenshotAnalyst’s NotesPolitical Calculations produces estimates of median household income that complement the monthly survey-based estimates produced by Motio Research. Our initial estimate of median household income in April 2024 based upon our alternate methodology is $77,760, which is exactly $1 less than our $78,171 for March 2024. Our April 2024 estimate is $478 below Motio Research’s initial survey-based estimate for the month.The latest update to Political Calculations’ chart tracking Median Household Income in the 21st Century shows the nominal (red) and inflation-adjusted (blue) trends for median household income in the United States from January 2000 through April 2024. The inflation-adjusted figures are presented in terms of constant April 2024 U.S. dollars and are not seasonally adjusted, unlike the data used to produce Motio Research’s Household Income index: chartThe U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis made significant downward adjustments in the aggregate income estimates we use to produce our estimates for the months of October 2023 through March 2024. Here’s how that income data changed from what the BEA reported a month earlier:
The downward revisions in aggregate wage and salary incomes reported by the BEA on 31 May 2024 account for the increased difference between Motio Research’s estimates and our complementary estimates.More By This Author:S&P 500 Investor Focus Shifts Forward To 2024-Q4Median Income For Individuals By U.S. StateDownward Momentum For New Home Sales Reasserts Itself
