The latest monthly data on home prices from S&P CoreLogic’s Case Shiller indices was released yesterday. These indices track home prices in 20 major cities/regions around the US.At the national level, home prices hit another all-time high in April (the data is released on a two-month lag). Month-over-month, the National index rose 1.2%, and it’s up 6.3% year-over-year.Below is a look at the Case Shiller National home price index since 1990 compared to inflation as measured by CPI. As shown, home prices are up more than 300% over this time frame, which is good enough for just over double the rate of inflation.
Below is a table showing the change in home prices over various points in time for the Case Shiller indices. Boston and San Francisco were up the most month-over-month with 2% gains. The only cities that weren’t up at least 1% month-over-month were DC, Miami, Tampa, and Phoenix, but even these cities all gained at least 0.5%.On a year-over-year basis, all twenty cities are up at least 1.5%, while the composite indices are up 6-8%.In late 2022/early 2023, we saw a pullback in home prices following an initial post-COVID surge in 2020 and 2021. At this point, though, 13 of 20 cities are back to new highs after prices have gone back up 10%+ for most cities since their 2023 lows. San Francisco, Seattle, Phoenix, Portland, Dallas, Las Vegas, and Denver are the seven cities that aren’t back to new highs yet. As you probably noticed, most of these are cities on the West Coast where inventories are a lot higher than they are in areas like the Northeast.Since just before COVID hit in February 2020, home prices are currently up about 50% nationally. Miami and Tampa are up the most since COVID with gains of 70%+, while San Francisco, Minneapolis, Portland, and DC are up the least.
Below are Case Shiller home price charts for the twenty cities and three composite indices. Cities highlighted in green are trading at all-time highs.More By This Author:China StrugglesThe Germans Are Coming Does Bad Breadth Lead To Weak Returns?