The USD/CHF pair snaps the three-day losing streak around 0.8910 during the early European session on Monday. The firmer US Dollar (USD) in the wake of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) hawkish stance, with the projection for only one rate cut in 2024, provides some support to the pair. Switzerland’s SECO Economic Forecasts are due later on Monday. On Thursday, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) interest rate decision will be closely watched.
The Fed officials forecast only one quarter-point rate cut by the end of this year, down from a total of three quarter-point cuts earlier this year. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said last week that inflation might end the year higher than initially predicted, prompting the expectation that the Fed might hold rates higher for longer to curb inflation. Powell added that the US central bank does not yet have the confidence to cut rates and he needs more convincing evidence that inflation is moving towards the goals.
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said on Sunday that it is a “reasonable prediction” that the Fed will wait for more data until December to cut interest rates. Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester noted on Friday that the path towards the Fed’s 2.0% inflation target may take longer than previously expected.
About the data, the preliminary University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index came in worse than estimated, dropping to 65.6 in June from 69.1 in the final reading in May, below the market consensus of 72. The UoM one-year Consumer Inflation Expectation held steady at 3.3%, while the five-year inflation outlook increased to 3.1% from 3.0%. However, these reports have little to no impact on the Greenback.
On the Swiss front, the Swiss central bank is anticipated to keep its interest rate on hold at 1.5% at its June meeting on Thursday as inflation in Switzerland hit the highest since December 2023. Apart from this, the ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the political uncertainty in the Eurozone, particularly in France, might boost the safe-haven flows and benefit the Swiss Franc (CHF) against the USD. After losing to the right-wing National Rally in the European vote, France’s President Emmanuel Macron called for early parliamentary elections. Macron stated on Sunday that Economic programs by two extremist blocks in the parliament election are not realistic, and France is at a very serious moment with major economic issues at stake. USD/CHF
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