From CBO report released yesterday.The budget deficit would’ve been larger in the absence of the surge: 
Figure 1: Baseline Federal budget balance to GDP ratio (blue) and counterfactual without immigration surge (tan), both by fiscal year. The 2023 observation is actual. Source: CBO Budget and Economic Outlook update (June), and CBO report, and author’s calculations.Nominal GDP would’ve been smaller as well. 
Source: CBO report.In 2023, the boost represented about 1.5% of counterfactual nominal GDP.More By This Author:Instantaneous Core Inflation
Alternative Business Cycle Indicators – Monday, July 22
Can One Have a Recession Start When Real Household Wealth Is Rising?
