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 After an attempted assassination, investors became more confident in Donald Trump’s chances of winning the US presidential election, leading to a rise in the Dollar and a decline in Treasury futures. The Mexican peso dropped, the dollar strengthened against other major currencies, and Bitcoin reached its highest level in nearly two weeks. Futures indicated expectations of higher Treasury rates as cash trading began in Europe. These actions reflect bets on the possibility of the Republican-led administration implementing stricter fiscal policies and increased tariffs upon re-election, which is generally expected to boost the Dollar and lower Treasury values. Stocks in Asia experienced declines, particularly Chinese stocks in Hong Kong, following data indicating a slowdown in the world’s second-largest economy. However, Indian shares rose and S&P 500 contracts suggested a higher open for the US market.This week, the financial markets will be influenced by the European Central Bank rate decision, China’s leadership meeting, a busy data schedule including Chinese GDP and monthly activity data, as well as U.S. politics and speeches by Federal Reserve officials. The ECB decision is expected to be the major event, with little surprise anticipated as markets predict a 95% chance of a steady 3.75% policy rate. The focus will be on inflation control and the timing of the next rate cut. Additionally, U.S. data such as retail sales, industrial production, housing starts, and speeches by Fed officials will provide insight into the economy. China’s upcoming once-in-five-year meeting will be closely watched for potential policy changes to support the economic recovery. Meanwhile, the People’s Bank of China is likely to maintain its one-year medium-term lending facility rate at 2.50% before the release of key economic data. The UK, Japan, and Australia will also contribute to the week’s economic outlook with their respective data releases.
 Overnight Newswire Updates of Note

(Sourced from Bloomberg, Reuters and other reliable financial news outlets)
 FX Options Expiries For 10am New York Cut (1BLN+ represent larger expiries, more magnetic when trading within daily ATR)

CFTC Data As Of 9/7/24

Technical & Trade ViewsSP500 Bullish Above Bearish Below 5550

EURUSD Bullish Above Bearish Below 1.0750

GBPUSD Bullish Above Bearish Below 1.28

USDJPY Bullish Above Bearish Below 160

XAUUSD Bullish Above Bearish Below 2345

BTCUSD Bullish Above Bearish below 60000

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