Daily Market Outlook – Wednesday, July 10


Cutout paper illustration representing scheme and Stocks inscriptionImage Source: Pexels
 US stocks hit new highs, leading to volatile swings in Asian markets as traders assessed Fed Chairman Powell’s remarks on the US economic outlook. Australian and Chinese stocks fell, while those in Hong Kong and Japan rose. China’s consumer prices barely increased in June, indicating ongoing deflationary pressures. The S&P 500 rose for a sixth straight session, while the Nasdaq 100 set another record. In Asian trade, European and US equity futures saw gains.Central bankers around the world are becoming more confident that markets may be moving towards a period of lower interest rates, as they have struggled to control inflation for a long time. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) recently announced that they expect headline inflation to return to the target range of 1% to 3% in the second half of this year, signaling a less aggressive stance compared to their previous outlook in May. This led to increased speculation of rate cuts in New Zealand, causing the kiwi to decline by 0.7%. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell also indicated that the U.S. economy is no longer overheated and the job market has cooled, hinting at a potential easing cycle in the future. Market expectations for a Fed rate cut in September have risen significantly, although a surprise increase in U.S. inflation could change this outlook. Japan, on the other hand, is an exception to the trend, as an uptick in wholesale inflation has kept alive expectations of a near-term rate hike by the central bank. The Bank of Japan is expected to lower its economic growth forecast but maintain its inflation target. In China, consumer prices grew for the fifth consecutive month but fell short of expectations, while producer prices continued to decline due to weak domestic demand despite government support measures.
 Overnight Newswire Updates of Note

  • RBNZ Maintains OCR At 5.50%, Suprises With Dovish Statement
  • China’s Inflation Numbers Miss Expectations, Rising 0.2% In June
  • China PPI Y/Y Jun:- 0.8% (est -0.8%; prev -1.4%)
  • BoJ To Trim Growth Forecast, Inflation Projected To Move Nearer Target
  • Japan PPI Y/Y Jun: 2.9% (est 2.9%; prev 2.4%)
  • Biden Forcefully Defends NATO As He Hosts Summit Leaders
  • ECB McCaul: Alarms Rising Risks From Shadow Banking
  • Dow, Texas Gulf Coast Petrochemical Producers Restart After Hurricane
  • VW Group Lowers Forecast On Possible Closure Of Brussels Site
  • Samsung Labour Union Plans Indefinite Strike
  • Microsoft Give Up Non-Voting Board Observer Seat At OpenAI
  • Yemen’s Houthis Targeted Maersk Sentosa Ship In Arabian Sea
  • (Sourced from Bloomberg, Reuters and other reliable financial news outlets)
     FX Options Expiries For 10am New York Cut (1BLN+ represent larger expiries, more magnetic when trading within daily ATR)

  • EUR/USD: 1.0775-70 (2.7BLN), 1.0795-1.0800 (1.1BLN), 1.0835 (236M),
  • 1.0875-80 (1.5BLN), 1.0900 (1.3BLN)
  • GBP/USD: 1.2750 (201M). EUR/GBP: 0.8455 (422M)
  • AUD/USD: 0.6595-0.6600 (1.4BLN), 0.6710 (359M), 0.6750 (426M)
  • 0.6770 (1BLN), 0.6795-0.6810 (1.1BLN)
  • NZD/USD: 0.6175 (435M). AUD/NZD: 1.1000 (344M)
  • USD/CAD: 1.3660-65 (1BLN)
  • USD/JPY: 160.00 (2.9BLN), 161.00 (834M), 161.15-20 (950M), 161.50 (1.2BLN)
     
  • CFTC Data As Of 5/7/24

  • JPY: -184,223 contracts
  • EUR: -9,519 contracts
  • GBP: 62,041 contracts
  • CHF: -43,443 contracts
  • Bitcoin: -912 contracts
  • Equity fund managers cut S&P 500 CME net long position by 24,005 contracts to 953,130
  • Equity fund speculators trim S&P 500 CME net short position by 5,025 contracts to 293,675
     
  • Technical & Trade ViewsSP500 Bullish Above Bearish Below 5480

  • Daily VWAP bullish
  • Weekly VWAP bullish 
  • Below 5475 opens 5450
  • Primary support 5370
  • Primary objective is 5580 – TARGET HIT NEW PATTERN EMERGING
  • EURUSD Bullish Above Bearish Below 1.0750

  • Daily VWAP bullish
  • Weekly VWAP bearish 
  • Above 1.880 opens 1.0940
  • Primary resistance 1.0981
  • Primary objective is 1.0650
  • GBPUSD Bullish Above Bearish Below 1.27

  • Daily VWAP bullish
  • Weekly VWAP bearish 
  • Above 1.29 opens 1.3130
  • Primary resistance  is 1.2890
  • Primary objective 1.2570
  • USDJPY Bullish Above Bearish Below 160

  • Daily VWAP bullish
  • Weekly VWAP bullish 
  • Below 157.60 opens 157.10
  • Primary support 152
  • Primary objective is 164
  • XAUUSD Bullish Above Bearish Below 2345

  • Daily VWAP bullish
  • Weekly VWAP bullish
  • Above 2415 opens 2495
  • Primary resistance 2387
  • Primary objective is 2262
  • BTCUSD Bullish Above Bearish below 60000

  • Daily VWAP bearish
  • Weekly VWAP bearish 
  • Above 67000 opens 70000
  • Primary support is 50000
  • Primary objective is 54500 – TARGET ACHIEVED NEW PATTERN EMERGING More By This Author:BP Earnings Disappointment Weighs On The Blue Chip Benchmark
    Daily Market Outlook – Tuesday, July 9
    Daily Market Outlook – Friday, July 5

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