Daily Market Outlook – Wednesday, July 31


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 Japanese stocks rebounded and the yen fluctuated as traders absorbed the BoJ’s interest rate hike and the slowdown in bond purchases. The BoJ raised interest rates to around 0.25% and announced a reduction in bond purchases to about ¥3 trillion ($19.6 billion) per month in Q1 2026. Japanese government bonds pared losses, with analysts having expected a more aggressive cut. The Nikkei 225 index advanced 0.2%, while the yen alternated between gains and losses.Meanwhile, the Australian dollar sank and short-term bonds surged as core inflation unexpectedly declined in the fourth quarter, leading traders to increase bets on a Reserve Bank interest rate cut. Chinese markets rose on growing expectations that Beijing will boost support for its faltering economy. In the US, equities futures rose on speculation that Fed Chair Jerome Powell would hint at a probable rate cut in September. Investors will now be waiting for the Federal Reserve’s decision on interest rates, while the euro zone’s inflation report will be the main economic focus this morning. Quarterly results from major tech firms are highlighting a divide in the AI landscape, with AMD reporting strong earnings but Microsoft disappointing investors with slow cloud growth.HSBC Holdings reported a slight decrease of 0.4% in first-half profit, but still exceeded analyst expectations. The company also announced the appointment of Jonathan Bingham as interim group chief financial officer, effective September 2. Meanwhile, Rio Tinto is considering a significant acquisition, but CEO Jakob Stausholm noted that it would need to offer exceptional value, which is challenging to find in the current hot copper market, as he discussed the company’s first-half results.
 Overnight Newswire Updates of Note

  • Australian Inflation Rises Amid Hopes Of RBA Rates Doves
  • US Carries Out Strike In Iraq Amid Middle East Tensions
  • BoJ Raises Interest Rate To 0.25% In Aggressive Move
  • Harris Wipes Out Trump’s Swing-State Lead Polls
  • US: Start Of New China Tariffs Will Be Delayed
  • US Carries Out Strike In Iraq, Regional Tensions
  • BoJ, Monthly JGB Buying Yield Curve Control
  • Oil Dips To Monthly Low Amid Shaky Demand
  • Tech Earnings; Nvidia, Meta CEOs Discuss AI
  • (Sourced from reliable financial news outlets)
     FX Options Expiries For 10am New York Cut (1BLN+ represent larger expiries, more magnetic when trading within daily ATR)

  • USD/JPY: 155.00 ($2.27b), 158.50 ($1.74b), 158.00 ($1.5b)
  • EUR/USD: 1.0800 (EU571.9m), 1.0700 (EU474.1m), 1.0920 (EU412.1m)
  • USD/CNY: 7.3000 ($745.9m), 7.3800 ($548m), 7.2789 ($499m)
  • AUD/USD: 0.6550 (AUD592.6m), 0.6650 (AUD559.3m), 0.6600 (AUD466m)
  • USD/BRL: 5.6000 ($1.39b), 5.6500 ($1.08b), 5.5000 ($838.2m)
  • USD/CAD: 1.3625 ($590.1m), 1.3750 ($324.8m)
  • GBP/USD: 1.4821 (GBP445.3m)
  • EUR/GBP: 0.8420 (EU549.2m)
  • Month-end FX flows are expected to be weak to neutral, according to various bank models. Barclays anticipates weak USD demand against major currencies, while Credit Agricole forecasts neutral USD but potential EUR buying from corporate flows.
     
  • CFTC Data As Of 23/7/24

  • Equity fund managers cut S&P 500 CME net long position by 2,812 contracts to 994,529
  • Equity fund speculators trim S&P 500 CME net short position by 89,786 contracts to 280,356
  • Japanese yen net short position is -107,108 contracts
  • Swiss franc posts net short position of -42,237 contracts
  • British pound net long position is 142,183 contracts
  • Euro net long position is 35,906 contracts
  • Bitcoin net short position is -661 contracts
     
  • Technical & Trade ViewsSP500 Bullish Above Bearish Below 5480

  • Daily VWAP bullish
  • Weekly VWAP bearish 
  • Below 5400 opens 5350
  • Primary support 5400
  • Primary objective is 5700
  • EURUSD Bullish Above Bearish Below 1.09

  • Daily VWAP bearish
  • Weekly VWAP bullish 
  • Above 1.880 opens 1.0940
  • Primary resistance 1.0981
  • Primary objective is 1.07
  • GBPUSD Bullish Above Bearish Below 1.29

  • Daily VWAP bearish
  • Weekly VWAP bullish 
  • Below 1.2670 opens 1.2450
  • Primary support is 1.2690
  • Primary objective 1.3160
  • USDJPY Bullish Above Bearish Below 152

  • Daily VWAP bullish
  • Weekly VWAP bearish 
  • Below 152 opens 148.70
  • Primary support 148.70
  • Primary objective is 164.30
  • XAUUSD Bullish Above Bearish Below 2345

  • Daily VWAP bearish
  • Weekly VWAP bullish
  • Below 2400 opens 2330
  • Primary support 2300
  • Primary objective is 2598
  • BTCUSD Bullish Above Bearish below 62000

  • Daily VWAP bearish
  • Weekly VWAP bullish 
  • Above 67000 opens 70000
  • Primary support is 50000
  • Primary objective is 70000
  • More By This Author:FTSE Sentiment Remains Subdued Ahead Of Central Bank Meetings
    SP500 Daily Trade Plan
    Daily Market Outlook – Tuesday, July 30

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