Business leaders looking to the future wonder how the election will impact the economy. A great deal is uncertain, but a few of the building blocks of an economic forecast are pretty clear. (This article takes an economic forecaster’s perspective; it will not tell you how to vote.)Most business planning decisions can be made before the election. Those business decisions that would best be postponed are surprisingly few in number.Fairly little credence should be given to any candidate’s promises. Looking at past campaign statements, many promises were ignored when the person was in office. Other promises did not advance because Congress would not go along. And of those promises that were actually implemented, some did not produce the effect the candidate—or the public—had expected. So be cautious about what the candidates say they will do, or what others say they will do. Be especially cautious about what an opponent says the candidate will do.With President Biden out of the race, it appears, as of this writing, that Vice President Harris will be the Democrats’ candidate. As a working assumption, she’ll probably pursue Biden’s agenda if she wins the election. Rick Newman of Yahoo Finance provides a good early perspective on Harris’s likely agenda. His key point is that we should not assume the Harris would push the same policies that she advocated as a presidential candidate in 2019.A few economic assumptions seem pretty safe. Both President Biden and President Trump spent big when they were in office. That would likely continue under either a Trump or Harris administration. Members of Congress from both parties support growing federal expenditures. The latest Congressional Budget Office projections of rising spending probably won’t change with the election.Taxes are uncertain. President Trump pushed through tax cuts, especially on corporate income, in the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017. The personal income changes, which include lower tax rates for middle-income people, are scheduled to expire at the end of 2025, and the Child Tax Credit will be reduced at that time as well. Donald Trump would probably try to keep the tax cuts in place, plus cut corporate income tax rates another percentage point. He has also mentioned using tariffs to replace the personal income tax, but the numbers don’t add up, and this idea will likely die. The Biden campaign had a list of tax cuts for lower- and middle-income people that he wanted to implement, as well as increased taxes on the rich. Harris would probably adopt, in broad format, those proposals. Congressional action would be needed for any tax change, aside from expirations already written into law. Congressional action seems unlikely unless one party wins both the White House and both houses of Congress with significant majorities.Regulatory policy is the area of greatest difference. President Biden’s regulatory agencies have aggressively tried to limit large corporations and provide greater consumer protections. President Trump talked about deregulation, but his main contribution to the effort was not adding too many additional regulations. Wholesale deregulation is quite unlikely even if Trump is elected. Continued expansion of regulation would be tried in a Harris administration, subject to the new constraints the Supreme Court has found in the constitution. Harris has pushed for stronger policies to address climate change, and she would probably continue the Biden AI regulation through executive order.The final area of economic impact is through court appointments, especially the Supreme Court. Trump’s appointees have been skeptical about deference to regulatory agencies. But keep in mind that Supreme Court appointees do not vote in lockstep with the president’s wishes, and we have seen justices appointed by Republican presidents split their votes a number of times in the past year. However, it’s true that the general tenor of the court has shifted in recent years. Harris appointments could shift the court to greater balance, but one term in office would not be enough to bring liberals into the majority.From a business perspective, the regulatory arena presents the greatest uncertainty. Generally, though, business leaders would do better concentrating on business than worrying about the upcoming election.More By This Author:Business Cost Inflation: Labor Expenses Will Drive 2024-2025 Budgets
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