WSJ July forecast relative to CBO, IMF WEO update, and GDPNow as of yesterday: 
Figure 1: GDP as reported (bold black), WSJ July survey mean (tan), CBO June projection (blue), IMF WEO July forecast (red square), and GDPNow of 7/17 (light blue square). Source: BEA 2024Q1 3rd release, July WSJ survey, IMF WEO July update, Atlanta Fed, and author’s calculations.
Interestingly, the CBO forecast from June is above the 20% trimmed high (for 2024 q4/q4) for the WSJ survey: 
Figure 2: GDP as reported (bold black), WSJ July survey mean (tan), 20% trimmed hi/low range based on 2024 q4/q4 growth (gray lines), and GDPNow of 7/17 (light blue square). Source: BEA 2024Q1 3rd release, July WSJ survey, Atlanta Fed, and author’s calculations.GDPNow as of 7/17 is registering a 2.7% q/q AR growth rate in Q2, on target for hitting the CBO projection. Interestingly, the IMF and CBO trajectories match pretty well through 2025Q4.In terms of recession predictions, the estimated probability of a recession in the next 12 months has dropped one percentage point, to 28%. On a related point, only two respondents (out of 68 for GDP growth) forecast two consecutive quarters of negative growth: Nicholas Van Ness (Credit Agricole CIB), and Andrew Hollenhorst/Veronica Clark (Citigroup). In the April survey, 5 respondents were in this group (Van Ness is the one overlap).More By This Author:Business Cycle Indicators As Of Mid-July 2024
Russia Real GDP And GDP Ex-Military Spending
Russia Economic Sit-Rep: Recession In The Coming Year?
