Data from the full report on Manufacturers’ shipments and new orders. Chart by MishNew Orders
New orders for manufactured durable goods in May, up four consecutive months, increased $0.2 billion or 0.1 percent to $282.9 billion, unchanged from the previously published increase. This followed a 0.2 percent April increase.
Transportation equipment, up three of the last four months, drove the increase.
New orders for manufactured nondurable goods decreased $3.2 billion or 1.0 percent to $300.2 billion.
Shipments
Shipments of manufactured durable goods in May, down following three consecutive monthly increases, decreased $1.1 billion or 0.4 percent to $284.6 billion, down from the previously published 0.3 percent decrease in the Advance Data.
Transportation equipment, also down following three consecutive monthly increases, led the decrease, $0.8 billion or 0.9 percent to $91.9 billion.
Shipments of manufactured nondurable goods, down following three consecutive monthly increases, decreased $3.2 billion or 1.0 percent to $300.2 billion. This followed a 0.5 percent April increase.
Inventories
Inventories of manufactured durable goods in May, up five of the last six months, increased $1.4 billion or 0.3 percent to $529.9 billion, unchanged from the previously published increase. This followed a 0.1 percent April increase.
Transportation equipment, up eleven of the last twelve months, led the increase, $1.1 billion or 0.7 percent to $172.3 billion.
Inventories of manufactured nondurable goods, up four consecutive months, increased $0.4 billion or 0.1 percent to $330.2 billion. This followed a 0.1 percent April increase. Petroleum and coal products, up three of the last four months, led the increase, $0.4 billion or 0.8 percent to $48.0 billion.
Advance ReportOn June 27, I reported Durable Goods New Orders Rise Slightly From Big Negative Revision
The Commerce Dept revised durable goods orders for April from 0.7% to 0.2%. This is the 2nd month with huge negative revisions.
Full Report Comments
The Full Report on Manufactured Goods includes nondurable goods and total manufactured goods not available in the advance report.
Some of this weakness was expected from the advance report, but there were two significant negative revisions.
The Commerce Dept revised total manufactured from 0.7 to 0.4 and shipments from -0.3 to -0.4. The Durable Goods revision last month from 0.7 to 0.2 was understood in the advance report.
Revisions, Revisions, RevisionsNote the ongoing revisions, all of them negative and significantly so.It was the negative revisions and the ISM services report, that led me to conclude the GDPNow forecast would drop.
Expect another big dive in GDPNow
Details shortly
— Mike “Mish” Shedlock (@MishGEA) July 3, 2024
The edit was changing “a another” to “another”.Services ISM PlungesEarlier today, I noted The Services ISM Plunges Into a Recession Forecasting Contraction
The ISM Services report was a disaster. Based on the current report, the overall economy dipped into contraction.
There was one positive wildcard that kept the GDPNow forecast from plunging more than it did.I will comment on the GDPNow report next.More By This Author:The Services ISM Plunges Into A Recession Forecasting ContractionHow Much Are State and Local Government Workers Overpaid?Job Quits Spotlight A Dramatic Weakening Of The Labor Market
