COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was a little higher last week in range trading as Hurricane Beryl is part of the past and as the USDA WASDE reports released on Friday produced no bearish surprises. USDA increased production estimates by one million bales and left the demand side untouched for an increase in US ending stocks levels. World ending stocks levels were reduced slightly as world growing conditions are more suspect. The demand as reflected in the weekly USDA export sales report was poor. USDA showed a decrease in production conditions for the crops in its reports last week that were the result of some extreme weather seen recently in Texas and the Southeast. The Delta should have the best looking crops right now. Demand has been weaker so far this year but there are hopes for improved demand with the lower prices. Chinese consumer demand has held together well, and Chinese demand for Cotton has started to increase.
Overnight News: ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against July futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 132 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 70.00, 68.80, and 67.60 December, with resistance of 72.30, 73.70 and 74.40 December.
General Comments: FCOJ closed a little higher last week as the hurricane watch continued. Traders also reacted to the USDA production reports released on Friday that showed slight increases in production in Florida and California. Hurricane Beryl missed Florida and there are no other storms in sight for the state for now, but a very active year is forecast and there have been some reports of flooding in the state even with no huge storms. The market remains well supported in the longer term based on forecasts for tight supplies and very hot weather in Florida. The reduced production appears to be at the expense of the greening disease. There are no weather concerns to speak of for Florida or for Brazil right now. The weather has improved in Brazil with some moderation in temperatures and increased rainfall amid reports of short supplies in Florida and Brazil are around but will start to disappear as the weather improves and the new crop gets harvested.
Overnight News: ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against July futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 147 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 433.00, 421.00, and 410.00 September, with resistance at 478.00, 484.00, and 490.00 September.COFFEE
General Comments: New York and London closed higher last week on more reports of short supplies that could be made worse by ideas of reduced offers of Robusta are still in the market. Offers from Vietnam are reported to be down significantly and the current crop in Brazil along with the next crop in Vietnam s reported to be smaller These markets are up sharply one day and down sharply the next, but the rally days are bigger than the loss days. The weather forecasters now say that conditions are good in Vietnam, but damage was done to crops earlier in the growing season. A little rain has been reported in Vietnam recently to help crops there. There were also reports of poor Robusta yields in Brazil during the harvest due to small bean sizes.
Overnight News: The ICO daily average price is now 248.36 ct/lb. ICE NY said that 21 contracts were posted for delivery against July contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 682 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 241.00, 239.00, and 232.00 September, and resistance is at 258.00, 264.00 and 270.00 September. Trends in London are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 4390, 4300, and 4220 July, with resistance at 4680, 4730, and 4790 September.SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London closed lower last week as harvest progress in Brazil was the important fundamental but as world supplies remain rather tight. Harvest yields of Sugarcane in Brazil are improving, and UNICA said that Sugar production was up more than 20% from last year at 3.25 million tons. The market had expected this increase. There are still ideas that the Brazil harvest can be strong for the next few weeks amid dry harvest weather. Harvest weather is called good in center-south Brazil.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 1920, 1880, and 1860 October and resistance is at 2050, 2070, and 2090 October. Trends in London are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 538.00, 530.00, and 526.00 October, with resistance at 560.00, 572.00, and 581.00 October.COCOA
General Comments: New York closed higher and London closed little changed last week. The European Cocoa grind was 357,502 tons, up 4.1% from last year. The data was supportive to prices. Production concerns in West Africa as well as demand from nontraditional sources along with traditional buyers keep supporting futures, but this support is running its course and the market is searching for a new bullish fundamental. Production in West Africa could be reduced this year due to the extreme weather which included Harmattan conditions. The availability of Cocoa from West Africa remains very restricted.
Overnight News: ICE NY said that 399 notices were posted for delivery against July futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 1,970 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 7880, 7520, and 6960 September, with resistance at 8670, 8960, and 9540 September. Trends in London are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 6520, 6250, and 5920 September, with resistance at 7420, 7940, and 8300 September.More By This Author:Softs Report – Friday, July 12Grains Report For July 9Softs Report – Tuesday, July 9
