Why Stocks Are On Pace For A Historic Second Half


Stocks have been on a tear this year. And the year is only halfway through.YTD, the Dow is up 4.47%, the S&P is up 16.7%, and the Nasdaq is up 22.3%, with both the S&P and Nasdaq each making another new all-time high again on Friday. That’s the 33rd new high this year for the S&P, and the 21st for the Nasdaq. depositphotos And the best part is that it looks like there’s a lot more upside to go.Especially after all of the major indexes finished in the green for the first half of the year, since that typically means more gains to follow in the second half.So, I’m expecting the gains to continue throughout the rest of the year. And it’s easy to see why.With a resilient economy, a strong jobs market, upward trending sales and earnings estimates, and household incomes remaining near record highs, it gives the market plenty of reason to keep moving higher.Here are some additional reasons why the second half of 2024 is shaping up to be historic. Presidential CyclePresidential election years have a long track-record of success.And the 4-year Presidential Cycle perfectly illustrates this.It shows that year 4 (that’s this year), is the second-best year of all four years (second only to year 3, which was last year, when the market gained 24%).Simply put, stocks typically do well in Presidential election years.And this year is shaping up to be another winner as well. Other Statistical Trends Benefitting The MarketEven though we are in the midst of a strong bull market, which has seen a series of new highs after new highs this year, the market prior to that had gone 24 long months without setting a new high even once.And it was only in January of this year that we finally eclipsed the previous all-time highs from January 2022.I point this out because history shows in the previous 14 times when the S&P has gone at least a full year without a new high, and then finally made one – a year later it was higher in 13 out of those 14 times, and up nearly 15% on average.Another interesting statistic, which points back to the big gains we saw in November of last year, also bodes well for more gains to come this year.Once again, history shows that when the S&P was up by more than 8% in a single month (November 2023 was up by 8.91%), (this has happened 30 times since 1950), a year later the index was higher in 27 out of those 30 times (that’s 90% of the time), with an average return of 15.8%.Pretty compelling stats.It also sets a bullish tone for all of the other factors working in the market’s favor this year.More By This Author:ETFs To Boost Gains Amid Rising Rate Cut ExpectationsShould Investors Buy Stock In These Payroll Processers After Friday’s Jobs Report? 3 Balanced Mutual Funds Worth Betting On For Stable Returns

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