10 year Treasury yields are down 40 bps over the week.
Over this week, the end-of-year CME Fed funds futures has dropped 15 bps. By year’s end, the Fed funds rate will be down 78 bps.
Figure 1: Fed funds (bold black), CME futures implied as of 7/26 (teal), as of 8/2 (red), in %. Source: Fed via FRED, CME, author’s calculations.More By This Author:Business Cycle Indicators, With Employment, Monthly GDPEmployment: Different Measures“Yellen Rebuffs Trump Argument On Dollar Hurting US Manufacturing”
