Australian private capex will give a first glimpse of next week’s 2Q24 GDP prospects on an otherwise quiet dayGlobal Macro and Markets
EURUSD retreated after the late gains of Tuesday and has dropped back to just 1.1125. Most of the rest of the G-10 pack has followed the EUR weaker, though the AUD has held up a bit better, perhaps on the misplaced view that yesterday’s upside CPI miss would keep the RBA on hold for longer. See our note from yesterday for more on this. We don’t see the RBA moving before 1Q25, but yesterday’s inflation figures weren’t as bad as the market reaction seems to imply, Please see the details here.
Asian FX had a mixed day again, though the outperformers are simply lagging the rest of the pack. The KRW propped up the bottom of the daily performance table and USDKRW has risen to 1336.35. USDCNY was little changed at 7.1279. The IDR, THB and MYR will likely reverse yesterday’s gains this morning.
US stocks experienced another day of losses. The S&P 500 fell 0.6% and the NASDAQ dropped 1.12%. Chinese stocks were also down. The Hang Seng fell 1.02% and the CSI 300 fell 0.57%.
G-7 Macro: Yesterday was extremely quiet for macro releases. It is a bit busier today, though the second release of the US GDP figures for 2Q24 is now of mainly historical interest, apart from the profits update which comes with that second release. Advance US goods trade data for July is also published. But trade data is not a big market mover. Initial jobless claims may also get more than the usual glance as the US labour market seems to have become the new benchmark by which the market will estimate the Fed’s easing scope and pace. We will also get a lot of German inflation releases, including the national harmonized index. The Eurozone publishes some August business and consumer confidence numbers.
What to look out for: US GDP second release, Australia private capital expenditureAugust 29thAustralia: 2Q private capital expenditureUS: 2Q24 GDP second releaseAugust 30thS Korea: July industrial productionJapan: July jobless rates, Job-to-applicant ratio, industrial production, retail sales, housing starts, August Tokyo CPIAustralia: July retail sales, private sector creditThailand: July BoP current account balance, imports, exports, trade balance, August gross international reservesIndia: 2Q24 GDP and July deficitUS: July PCE and core PCE inflationChina: August Manufacturing PMI, Non-manufacturing PMI (31st August)S Korea: August Imports, exports, trade balance (1st September)More By This Author:Where Now For The US 10yr Rate? Eurozone Lending Remains Sluggish Ahead Of September ECB Meeting Australia: Inflation Declines In July
