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GBP/USD tested into a fresh multi-year high on Tuesday, easing into a 29-month peak of 1.3266 as the Pound Sterling continues to catch a ride on a broad-market Greenback sell wave. Investors have piled into hopes for a September rate cut from the Federal Reserve (Fed), and US Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index (PCE) inflation figures not due until Friday leave markets with little meaningful data to chew on until then.Fed Chair Jerome Powell all but confirmed that the central bank will pivot into a rate-cutting cycle on September 18 during an appearance at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium last Friday, sending market appetite into the ceiling once again.
Coming up on Wednesday: consolidation session on the cards
Little of note is populating the economic calendar on the UK side, and Wednesday is shaping up to be a quiet session on both sides of the Atlantic. Fedspeak traders will have an eye out for a speech from Fed Board of Governors member Christopher Waller early in the US market session, while central bank watchers will be looking out for a speech from Bank of England (BoE) policymaker Catherine Mann, due after London markets close.
What happened on Tuesday
Mixed prints in US housing price data from June gave investors little to go on. The Federal Housing Finance Agency’s MoM Housing Price Index contracted -0.1% compared to May’s print of 0.0%. Markets expected a print of 0.2%. The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, meanwhile, rose 6.5% YoY, less than the previous period’s revised 6.9%, but still more than the expected 6.0%.
Coming up: US GDP, PCE inflation data prints
US Q2 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures are slated to print on Thursday, and are expected to hold steady at 2.8% on an annualized basis. However, the key data print this week will be Friday’s US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index inflation reading for July, which is expected to tick higher YoY to 2.7% from 2.6% and hold flat at 0.2% MoM. Market participants absolutely giddy over hopes for rate cuts will be looking for inflation data to come in below expectations, while an above-forecast print could send fresh jitters through investor risk appetite.
GBP/USD price forecast
Cable’s early-week pullback is already over, with bids tipping once again into a fresh 29-month high. GBP/USD is now on pace to resume a near-term bullish trend that has dragged the pair up 4.75% bottom-to-top from early August’s swing low into 1.2665.GBP/USD has closed in the green for all but two of the last 14 consecutive trading days, and technical barriers on the high side have drawn thin. Bidders should be cautious of an overbought snap back into the low side, but with price action trading well north of the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.2876, it would take a significant drop in value before signs of a bearish trend change even begin to form on the charts.
GBP/USD daily chart
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