Image Source: PexelsStill hard to see the recession in (preliminary) August 2024 data.
Figure 1: Nonfarm Payroll (NFP) employment from CES (blue), implied NFP from preliminary benchmark (bold blue), civilian employment (orange), industrial production (red), personal income excluding current transfers in Ch.2017$ (bold light green), manufacturing and trade sales in Ch.2017$ (black), consumption in Ch.2017$ (light blue), and monthly GDP in Ch.2017$ (pink), GDP (blue bars), all log normalized to 2021M11=0. Source: BLS via FRED, Federal Reserve, BEA 2024Q2 3rd release/annual update, S&P Global Market Insights (nee Macroeconomic Advisers, IHS Markit) (9/3/2024 release), and author’s calculations.The Philadelphia Fed’s coincident index (based on labor market data, scaled to US GDP trend growth) as well as the NFP early benchmark (thru 3/2024, extrapolated based on CES thereafter) indicate continued growth. Manufacturing production and retail sales seem to be trending sideways.
Figure 2: Nonfarm Payroll early benchmark (NFP) (bold blue), civilian employment adjusted using CBO immigration estimates through mid-2024 (orange), manufacturing production (red), personal income excluding current transfers in Ch.2017$ (light green), retail sales in 1999M12$ (black), vehicle miles travelled (chartreuse), and coincident index (pink), GDO (blue bars), all log normalized to 2021M11=0. Early benchmark is official NFP adjusted by ratio of early benchmark sum-of-states to CES sum of states. Source: Philadelphia Fed, Federal Reserve, NHTSA via FRED, BEA 2024Q2 3rd release/annual update, and author’s calculations.High frequency indicators, like the Lewis-Mertens-Stock/NY Fed WEI, show acceleration to 2.69% using data available as of 9/21. The Baumeister-Leiva-Leon-Sims WECI reads -0.31%, indicating 1.69% growth if 2% is trend.As for nowcasts, the GDPNow has been raised to 3.01% for Q3. The NY Fed’s nowcast is 2.99% vs. 3.01, with the Q4 number raised slightly.
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