Image Source: PexelsCFNAI and state-level coincident indices suggest softening in activity.
Figure 1: CFNAI diffusion index (blue, left scale), and coincident index diffusion index for 3 month changes (tan, right scale). NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded gray. Source: Chicago Fed via FRED, and Philadelphia Fed, NBER.Note that CFNAI diffusion index reading of -0.17 is above the -0.35 threshold for recession.More By This Author:The Low Consumer Sentiment/Confidence Puzzle Resolved?China Policy Moves In Context Disciplining The Debate: Recession Indicator AUROCs
