Let’s compare current Beige Book conditions to those at the beginning of the Great Recession. 
Beige Book January 2008Let’s take a look at the Fed’s Beige Book Summary of Economic Conditions in the 12 Fed districts in January of 2008. The Great Recession had begun.
Reports from the twelve Federal Reserve Districts suggest that economic activity increased modestly during the survey period of mid-November through December, but at a slower pace compared with the previous survey period. Among Districts, seven reported a slight increase in activity, two reported mixed conditions, and activity in three Districts was described as slowing.
Beige Book March 2008Next consider Fed’s Beige Book Summary of Economic ConditionsBeige Book Summary of Economic Conditions in the 12 Fed districts in March of 2008. The Great Recession was underway.
Reports from the twelve Federal Reserve Districts suggest that economic growth has slowed since the beginning of the year. Two-thirds of the Districts cited softening or weakening in the pace of business activity, while the others referred to subdued, slow, or modest growth. Retail activity in most Districts was reported to be weak or softening, although tourism generally continued to expand. Services industries in many Districts, including staffing services in Boston, port activity in New York, and truck freight volume in Cleveland, appeared to be slowing, but activity in services provided some positive news in Richmond and Dallas. Manufacturing was said to be sluggish or to have slowed in about half the Districts, while several others indicated manufacturing results were mixed or trends were steady.
Beige Book July 2008Next consider Fed’s Beige Book Summary of Economic ConditionsBeige Book Summary of Economic Conditions in the 12 Fed districts in July of 2008. The Great Recession was in the seventh month.
Reports from the twelve Federal Reserve Districts suggest that the pace of economic activity slowed somewhat since the last report. Five eastern Districts noted a weakening or softening in their overall economies, while Chicago characterized its economy as sluggish and Kansas City noted a moderation in growth. St. Louis said activity was stable and San Francisco reported little or no growth. Cleveland and Minneapolis reported slight increases in economic activity, while Dallas described growth as steady and moderate.
Beige Book Most Downbeat in Ages 
September 2024 Fed Beige Book Shows Flat or Declining Economy in 9 of 12 Fed DistrictsOn September 5, 2024, I noted Fed Beige Book Shows Flat or Declining Economy in 9 of 12 Fed DistrictsOverall Activity
By District
Strongly Push for 50 Basis Points
That is how I see it too. But the market disagrees. We will have a better idea on Wednesday. September 2024 vs July 2008
Small Businesses Reducing Workers for the Last Four MonthsOn Thursday, I noted Small Businesses Reducing Workers for the Last Four Months
ADP data shows small businesses with 1-49 workers have been reducing workers for four months. Those with 20-49 workers have shed workers for 7 straight months.
Hmmm. That must be nothing .On September 3, I noted Construction Spending Growth Slows in May, Stops in June, Negative in JulyAgain, that’s nothing.BLS Negative Job Revisions 15 of Last 21 MonthsAlso note BLS Negative Job Revisions 15 of Last 21 MonthsAnd the current economic headline conditions are worse than the conditions heading into the 7th month of the Great Recession.More By This Author:Key Recession Indicator Gives Stronger Recession Signal in AugustPayroll Report: Manufacturing Sheds 24,000 Jobs, Government Adds 24,000, Big Negative RevisionsSpotlight On US Treasuries, Where Are Long-Term Bond Yields Headed?
