Image Source: PexelsI have some new charts today on job revisions. Let’s discuss.
Data from the BLS via the Philadelphia FedBLS Survey Background
BLS Nonfarm Revision Chart Notes
For fourteen of the last 20 months the revisions have been negative.BLS Nonfarm Payrolls as Released and Revised
There is no revision yet to July so data runs through June.The June second revision will come out this next monthly report this Friday as will the first revision to July.Employment Revisions Six Month and 12-Month Rolling Sum
Negative revisions are not always associated with recessions, nor positive revisions with non-recessions.Dating to November 1964 (that’s how far back the Philadelphia Fed data goes), there were 306 months of negative initial to third (or current for most recent months).That’s 306 out of 717 months of negative revisions, 42.7 percent of the time. Positive revisions happen 57.3 percent of the time. But ….BLS Revises Jobs Down by 818,000, About 68,000 Per MonthOn August 21, I reported BLS Revises Jobs Down by 818,000, About 68,000 Per Month
Do I get to say I told you so? My advance estimate a month ago was 779,000 lower. Bloomberg estimated 730,000.
A Breakdown, by Sector, of the Negative 818,000 BLS Job Revisions
Here’s a A Breakdown, by Sector, of the Negative 818,000 BLS Job Revisions
Yesterday morning, I had difficulty finding the BLS job revisions. So did everyone else. Eventually the BLS posted -818,000 but my unadjusted calc of -915,000 is accurate too.
Q: How do those numbers factor into the monthly revisions?
A: They don’t.CES Preliminary Benchmark AnnouncementPlease consider the CES Preliminary Benchmark Announcement
In accordance with usual practice [but not in the usual way], the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is announcing the preliminary estimate of the upcoming annual benchmark revision to the establishment survey employment series. The final benchmark revision will be issued in February 2025 with the publication of the January 2025 Employment Situation news release.
Each year, the Current Employment Statistics (CES) survey employment estimates are benchmarked to comprehensive counts of employment for the month of March. These counts are derived from state unemployment insurance (UI) tax records that nearly all employers are required to file. For National CES employment series, the annual benchmark revisions over the last 10 years have averaged plus or minus one-tenth of one percent of total nonfarm employment. The preliminary estimate of the benchmark revision indicates an adjustment to March 2024 total nonfarm employment of -818,000 (-0.5 percent).
Preliminary benchmark revisions are calculated only for the month of March 2024 for the major industry sectors. The existing employment series are not updated with the release of the preliminary benchmark estimate. The data for all CES series will be updated when the final benchmark revision is issued.
Big Bang RevisionLong after everyone cares about what happened in the first quarter of 2024, the BLS will post an annual revision in one big bang.Every year, this makes all of the monthly data reports historical nonsense “in accordance with usual practice.“Thought of the Day68k downward revision per month on average. This means that productivity will be revised up while unit labor costs will be revised down.Personal income and Gross Domestic Income will be revised downward and the personal saving rate will be reduced from its already very depressed level of 3.5 percent.We should remember that the markets traded on this faulty data. The downward revision is confirmation that the birth/death model, which imputes the gain in jobs for small firms, is not working.Happy Labor DayMore By This Author:Apartment List Shows A Decline In The National Rent Price In August The Last Remaining San Francisco Denny’s Closes After 25 YearsThe BEA Revises Income In May And June Lower, But Spending Higher
