Degrees of ‘re-calibration’ dominate analyst speculation about the Fed; as well as about ‘growth’ peaking or not (it did that short-term months ago and as you know the Jobs data had been massaged to make things look better); plus whether or not the indications infer a recession formally ensuing.First of all, small stocks have been throttled to neutral (at best) behavior for a few months; second the equity leadership from hardware AI and data stocks was overdone as I’ve contended for a few months actually; third, the Fed will cut, but whether 25 or 50 basis points at the upcoming meeting is fairly moot; since the stock market has already dropped, bounced to the 50-DMA and on the way down again. Plus it’s September. What does that mean? Normalcy.Let the dust settle as to S&P; with skepticism on interim rebounds; for now. Similar for NDX and Semiconductors, and even Oil. It’s all in the process.
Normalcy may seem oversimplification; but it’s not. This was due and part of a long-standing August and September forecast; with geopolitics further spoiling things depending what happens (none of that is resolved). I called a decline in the wake of the expected disappointing (really a mixed bag) Jobs Report (and important revisions downward that take last months data closer to what we’d thought was actually the case at the time) a ‘bullish alternative’, because to us it was clear that washing-out the mega-cap tech leaders was healthy; it likely sets-up a better pattern later this Fall; and from a better price-point to enter.That’s also why I thought it lunacy to chase any of the big-mega-cap techs as well as why there’s insufficient time to really capitalize on alternative dividend payers and son on, which the Street ‘shills’ will always promote to keep their clients ‘in’ something other than cash or equivalents, during the soft season. It is unusual in that the broad market really isn’t all that firm; there isn’t logic for being truly bearish on the overall market given it’s never participated this year as far as the ‘troops joining the generals’; so as the generals retreat to merely pound the troops a bit as they jump into trenches too; that’s about all you get.
Market X-ray: Of course you can get exceptions to this being constructive if we look forward a few weeks; but that might tie-in to geopolitics failing to improve, or something unknown. Also the Elections might play a role slightly; given the correct argument that higher Corporate Taxes or Capital Gains aren’t beloved by Wall Street or investors in general; hence not particularly bullish for stocks.Based on where things stand, I don’t think we get into a deep recession; as for a lot of Americans we already are about as slow as it’s likely to get. But in a market perspective, we should have more to go; with S&P breaking 5400 at the start Monday; possibly some rebound as or after Apple’s ‘event’ at 1 pm; but nothing particularly sustainable just as yet. Simply again: it’s September.
If the Fed squandered a soft landing opportunity; it’s due to falling for political bait that massaged the Jobs numbers to appear better than they really were; something I tried to warn about during the preceding Labor release. Anyway I am not convinced we won’t still have a bifurcated sort of ‘softish’ landing; and I view this market as ‘finally’ correcting to a reasonable level; though unlikely to be at a bottom of this from a seasonal aspect.This is tricky, because before I took a break to the UK (and suffering jet lag in its wake, not tNo mention I already needed a vacation from vacation) … I had a 5400 short-term goal (actually 5400 down to 5100); and we got there and then rebounded and now back down. However the rebound was to a ‘double-top’ in a sense; although not confirmed by the NY Composite. Patterns vary with the heaviest selling primarily seen where we expected: overpriced mega-caps.
The market is not yet at the level to ‘grab onto something’. We’re not there yet and shouldn’t be. So look for periodic rebounds, intraweek rallies and so on in a vacuum pending CPI, the Fed meeting and more in the next couple weeks.I emphasize it is not unhealthy given Oil down a bit; and overzealous big-caps moves that have screamed for correction for about two months or so. Hence I emphasize the double-top short-term and twin peaks around S&P 5600; with a possible movement to 5400 again; which if it gets legs ventures toward the 5100 area which was our low in early August before the hail-Mary rebound. It remains fluid, sensitive to geopolitics and domestic politics, and seasonally it just evolves pretty much as it should for now.Also.. Palantir will be added to the S&P (announced after the Close); keep in mind they work with BigBear.ai on several Government projects (Navy) and I would not be surprised to see further relationships with them.
Bottom line: got the false rebound and ensuing post-Jobs report; not too bad in a sense. That might get us a 25 rather than 50 basis point Fed cut; but they will debate that all next week. All that is clear is that rate cuts are coming; and that’s somewhat ‘in’ the market based on broad expectation for it (even tardy).Aside seasonality issues, and irrelevant comparisons to worst S&P week in a year and all that (irrelevant as a serious shakeout can be structurally healthy, in that money managers will have more lower-risk choices weeks from now); this is also a market sensitive to semiconductor news; AI news (less exciting at least in terms of market enthusiasts); and Apple’s iPhone 16 revelations expected on Monday (1 pm ET ‘event’ that I will monitor). I can tell you now I suspect one of the best features will be allowing watching your iPhone on a ‘MAC’, which means using a normal keyboard and mouse (if inclined) to use any App on your phone, without having the App clogging up your computer.More on Monday; enjoy the weekend and football.
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