We are up over 28% this year so far; SPX up around 20%. The bottom window is the SPY/VIX ratio. A bearish sign is triggered when the SPY makes a higher high and the SPY/VIX ratio makes a lower high; noted on chart. We shaded in light pink the times when the SPY was up 7 days or more in a row. Up 7 days in a row or more usually signal times where market will at least flip sideways or worst stage a pull back. Its common for SPY to hit a higher high after 7 day up in a row. Seasonality leans bearish all this week. A pull back is likely to test 9/19 gap near 560 at a minimum (noted on chart). Sold long 9/13/24 at 5626.02= gain 2.23%; Long SPX on 9/5/24 at 5503.41.
The SPY/VIX ratio (top window) compared to the SPY (bottom window) is showing a negative divergence. Bullish signs occur when the SPY is making higher highs and the SPY/VIX ratio making higher highs. Bearish sign occur when the SPY is making higher highs and the SPY/VIX ratio is making lower highs (which is what we have here). The SPY/VIX indictor suggests the market is not setup for an extended move to the upside right now. Bigger trend remain bullish and new highs later this year is possible but the next month or so could be choppy.
Here is another indicator that looks at the bigger picture for the gold stocks. The middle window is the monthly HUI/Gold ratio with its Bollinger bands. Longer term signals are generated with the monthly HUI/Gold ratio when it closes above it’s mid Bollinger band (bullish) and bearish when it closes below. The blue lines on the chart represent times with it closes above its Bollinger band and the red lines when it closes below. The last signal was generated on June 1, 2024 which was bullish. Adding 1 ½ years (minimum time for signal) to current signal would give a target to December 2025 for the next high; but could last as long as June 2028 (four years max).More By This Author:The All New Market Analysis
A New High In GDX Is Possible
The New Market Analysis
